A winter warm and welcome
No prospect of snow until Dec. 21, but don’t rule out white Christmas
Exactly one year after the city was blanketed with more than 17 centimetres of snow on a single day, the skies were blue Friday and temperatures hit a fine 14 C.
Toronto’s winter has so far seen record low levels of snow. Dating back to 1937, the lowest level of winter snowfall recorded at Pearson International Airport was 11.2 centimetres; so far this year, only 0.8 centimetres has landed.
And the good news is expected to continue. Monthly forecasts are not predicting snowfall until Dec. 21, when rain could become snow showers in the morning.
“Look at the temperatures we are seeing here . . . It’s 14 C (Friday); it should be around 2 C,” David Phillips, senior climatologist at Environment Canada, said Friday.
“We’re usually more likely to see double-digit negative temperatures at this time of year, not double-digit positive.”
Torontonians ditched their winter coats Friday and rejoiced in the warm temperatures, though they were considerably shy of the 19.9-C record for December, set in Toronto on Dec. 3, 1982.
Last year on this date, the mean temperature was a chilly -3.9 C, according to data from the Weather Network. From 1981 to 2010, the daily average for Toronto in December was -0.5 C.
Typically, Toronto receives an average of 24.1 centimetres of snow throughout the entire month of December, according to Environment Canada statistics for the period between 1981 and 2010.
Mindful of the season’s usual habits, Environment Canada has a message for Torontonians: don’t get too smug.
“I’d like to remind your good readers of 1998,” Phillips continued.
“In October, there was no snow. In November, only a trace. By the end of December, a grand total of six centimetres had fallen.
“By the first 15 days of January, we were buried in it; 116 centimetres of snow had fallen, and we had to call out the army, much to our embarrassment.”
The lack of snow is apparently attributable to the El Nino effect, which Environment Canada predicted would have a stronger effect on weather patterns in Canada in 2015 and 2016.
El Nino occurs roughly every two to seven years, when the surface of the Pacific Ocean near Ecuador is warmer than usual. It affects weather patterns in Canada mostly during spring and winter.
If you’re one of the few who is still desperate for snow on the ground for Christmas, it’s a possibility that a cautious Phillips won’t rule out.
“I wouldn’t bet on a white Christmas,” he said Friday. “But it can all change even the day before.”