A no-fly zone no one wanted
Russian air defence system triggers new crisis in Syria
It beckoned all year as the next best thing to peace in Syria: the imposition of a no-fly zone, enforced by the world’s collective air power, to clear the deadliest skies the Middle East has known in decades.
And now it’s not going to happen because amid Western indecision, Russia just went ahead and gobbled up Syria’s airspace, mobilizing a trove of advanced air defence systems in support of the region’s major killer — the Assad regime.
The Kremlin’s very serious fact on the ground — the S-400 anti-aircraft system now operating outside Latakia, with a maximum ballistic reach of 400 kilometres — is aimed angrily in Turkey’s direction, yet another development in the Russian response to the downing of a Su-24 jet last month.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said as much in his annual marathon bull session with reporters on Thursday, gloating that (Ankara) “thought we would flee! No, Russia is not a country to act like that.” He dared Turkey to violate Syrian airspace, now that his most capable missiles await.
But never mind Turkey. Russia’s anti-aircraft missiles now are getting in everyone’s way, even forcing the Pentagon to keep some of its own aircraft grounded in key parts of northern Syria.
The Russian disruption, Bloomberg revealed, has triggered a new crisis, with the Americans halting manned flights after the new Russian weapon began “painting” U.S. planes with radar. U.S. officials told Bloomberg the Russian targeting amounted to a direct and dangerous provocation.
Syria has become so complicated it is difficult for casual observers to keep basic facts straight. But it is important to know this much: though the Islamic State group generates most of the fear Westerners feel, it’s the Assad regime that generates most of the death. The numbers aren’t even close. From chlorine attacks to barrel bombs dropped by helicopter, the Assad killing machine has the vast majority of Syrian blood on its hands.
Though many Syrian civilians have fled Islamic State, most have run from Assad. One can expect, with such a heavy Russian hand now tilting the scales in Assad’s favour, the flow of refugees will continue, if not worsen.
Establishing a no-fly zone over Syria was always going to be a heavy lift, politically. But there were other options that might have achieved the same goal — a drastic reduction in killing. In September, Jean-Marie Guéhenno, head of the International Crisis Group, proposed a campaign of “timely retaliatory measures” that would be meted out to make the Assad regime pay for its attacks on civilians.
“Every time Assad’s army bombs civilian targets, for instance, an attack against a Syrian airbase could follow in retaliation. With a bit of determination, this is possible,” Guéhenno told the French magazine L’Express.
It doesn’t seem possible now, unless you are, say, Chris Christie. The former New Jersey governor, now vying for the Republican presi- dential nomination, blithely said he would not hesitate to shoot down a Russian plane over Syrian airspace during Tuesday’s GOP debate. Rand Paul, stunned by the recklessness of such a remark, retorted, “Well, I think if you’re in favour of World War III you have your candidate.”
But the question is arguably moot, now that we have a clearer sense of who controls the skies over Syria. The last major opening to bring the Assad regime to heel and staunch the flow of blood and refugees has closed. Russian action trumped Western talk. And Syrians are likely to pay the price. Again.
With Russia tilting the scales in Assad’s favour, the flow of refugees will continue, if not worsen