Provinces prove 2015 not just a Trudeau show
MONTREAL— With the high beams of Justin Trudeau’s election victory glaring in the rear-view mirror, it is harder than usual to look back on the entire political year.
And yet it was not all federal politics in 2015. Parliament was hardly the only scene of a dramatic changing of the guard. A new NDP star was born in Alberta and a would-be saviour took charge of Quebec’s sovereignty movement.
From the bubble of the national capital, the election in May of Rachel Notley’s NDP government in Alberta was initially seen through the narrow prism of the upcoming federal campaign. But the presence of an NDP government in Edmonton — after decades of non-stop Tory rule — amounts to more than just an omen of debatable significance to pundits and strategists looking to hedge their federal election bets.
With the NDP in Alberta’s chair at the federal-provincial table, it is the dynamics of the federation that stand to be altered and — with it — the relationship of every main national party to that province.
It will take some time to get used to the notion that Edmonton is technically home to a provincial government that is a) to the left of most of its counterparts and b) as close to the same wavelength as the rest of the federation on issues such as climate change as it has ever been.
Some of that big shift was in evidence in the lead-up to the Paris climate conference.
The federal Conservatives, who have for decades been Alberta’s main voice on Parliament Hill, will have to adjust to this awkward new normal.
That is not to say that Alberta will agree with Ontario and Quebec or the Trudeau government on every major issue. But the risks that Notley will be the odd premier out in the discussions or that Alberta will be consigned to political isolation are lower than they would have been if Alberta’s Conservative dynasty were still at the helm.
To put it bluntly, if Trudeau’s Liberals can’t get along with a New Democrat government in Edmonton, then they probably could not get along with any Alberta government.
It is not just the federal Liberals who have an incentive to play nice with Notley and, by extension, with Alberta.
Thomas Mulcair’s NDP has a big stake in the success of her government. In the big picture, the New Democrats simply can’t afford to have Alberta become the scene of a repeat failed experiment along the lines of their single Ontario mandate in the early 1990s.
They will have to consider that reality as they ponder whether they should respond to Trudeau’s victory by tacking sharply to the left and risk, in the process, becoming estranged from the ruling Alberta New Democrats.
In Quebec, 2015 saw a very different changing of the guard.
For the fifth time since the 1995 referendum, the Parti Québécois chose a new leader. For the first time it cast its lot with a political neophyte with no track record in government and precious little experience in opposition.
So far, hopes that Pierre Karl Péladeau’s presence at the helm would translate into a Trudeau-style lift in support for the PQ and its sovereignty option have not materialized.
The federal election took place on what should have been the honeymoon phase of PKP’s leadership. The PQ leader was front and centre in the Bloc Québécois campaign. In the end, the federal party came out of the October vote with less support than at any other time in its history.
That will not deter the PQ from continuing to find some inspiration in the Trudeau saga. After all, it was not so long ago that the federal Liberals were widely considered a spent force and the new prime minister — like Péladeau today — dismissed as a leader who would drive the potentially final nail in the party’s coffin.
In 2016, by all means focus on Trudeau’s first full year in power. It promises to be a riveting show. But if you want to keep track of the health of the federation, keep an eye also on the political fortunes of Notley in Alberta and Péladeau in Quebec. Chantal Hébert is a national affairs writer. Her column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.