Cameron boasts ‘momentum’ on EU referendum
Quick campaign while unrest plagues opposition may up PM’s odds to win vote
LONDON— British Prime Minister David Cameron’s optimism that he can seal a deal on Britain’s relationship with the European Union early next year has increased the possibility that he will call a referendum on continued membership as early as June.
“There’s a pathway through this to a deal in February,” Cameron told reporters in Brussels late Thursday night after talks over dinner with his EU counterparts, referring to the next planned summit on Feb. 18-19. He would then be able to immedi- ately start the process of legislation needed to hold a vote, leading to a referendum within four months.
“I believe 2016 will be the year we achieve something really vital: fundamentally changing Britain’s relationship with the EU, and finally addressing the concerns of the British people about our membership,” the prime minister told reporters at the end of the two-day meeting on Friday. “Then it will be for the British people to decide whether we remain or leave.”
Cameron’s critics at home were unimpressed. “David Cameron came, saw and got hammered,” Nigel Farage, leader of the U.K. Independence Party, said on Twitter.
A quick campaign might enhance Cameron’s chances of winning a vote to remain in the 28-nation bloc. He’d be able to take advantage of the dis- array in both UKIP and the main opposition Labour Party, which are both battling internal divisions, and avoid co-ordinated scrutiny of his deal. Cameron’s comments Friday were his strongest indication yet that the vote will be held next year.
“From an organizational point of view, looking at where the ‘Leave’ camp is, there’s a strong argument for going sooner,” Matthew Goodwin, professor of politics at the University of Kent and author of two books about UKIP, said in an interview. Still, “any referendum outside the winter would be risky for Cameron. By June you will have rising migration flows into Europe.”
Ministers have calculated that the referendum could be held as soon as four months after an agreement. Thursdays are the traditional voting day in the United Kingdom, and a date as early as June 9 is feasible, though the planned timetable makes June 16 more likely.
Polling on voting intention in the run-up to the referendum has been inconclusive. While two telephone polls published Wednesday showed double-digit leads in favour of staying in, online polling has largely shown the two sides neck and neck.
“The ‘Leave’ camp should be holding a far more compelling lead than they’re doing.” Goodwin said. “I’ve not seen any convincing evidence suggesting ‘Leave’ has got a lead be- yond the margin of error.”
Cameron has pledged to overhaul Britain’s membership of the bloc before an in-out referendum before the end of 2017. He said there’s now “momentum” for a deal after the summit.
The main sticking point remains Cameron’s determination to make citizens of other EU countries ineligible for in-work, housing and childwelfare payments until they have been in Britain for four years.
Leaders indicated they might accept a compromise similar to optouts from certain EU rules that Denmark won in 1992, an EU official said on condition of anonymity. This could be enshrined in law before the U.K. holds its referendum and could include a so-called emergency brake to enable Britain to restrict welfare payments if it could prove exceptional circumstances, the official said.