Leaf fans have reason to be optimistic
Team in better place than a year ago, strong draft ahead
A year ago, the Maple Leafs were in a miserable spot.
The team was again sliding out of playoff contention with Randy Carlyle in his final days behind the bench and Dave Nonis at the general manager position, trying to work with president Brendan Shanahan. For a wide variety of reasons, the team wasn’t just lousy, it was unlovable.
Worst of all, the organization and its fans seemed stuck with what it had because of limited prospects and albatross-like contracts, including one owned by star forward Phil Kessel, who seemed a poor fit to lead the team.
There was no obvious way out. The club seemed like a young couple weighed down by thousands of dollars in credit card debt, unable to buy a house or imagine starting a family, with little optimism for growth or change.
Well, a lot did change. Sadly, that meant a lot of good men lost their jobs. The organization was effectively pancaked by Shanahan.
Kessel was traded away, the draft yielded new optimism and the arrival of head coach Mike Babcock seemed to signal a new era in Leaf hockey.
Today, that means Leaf fans face two scenarios in the next six months, both of which are actually quite good.
How’s that for positive change in a calendar year?
First, the Leafs could continue to be more successful on the ice than anyone believed they would be. With a 6-2-2 record in their last 10 games and a .554 winning percentage since registering just one victory in October, the Leafs have proven to be a worthy opponent most nights. They may not be turning their fans on but they’re not turning them off, and theoretically, if they can pick up their play a little more, Babcock’s squad could even make an exciting charge for a playoff spot. So that’s one alternative. Second, they could stay about where they are, in the bottom five teams of the league, and reap the benefits of what appears to be a very strong draft class. Given the quality of talent that has been on display in Helsinki this week, that appears to be a very appealing alternative.
Indeed, acquiring marquee assets through the draft is now a more meaningful process of adding elite talent than ever before. Actually, it may be the only way, with the trade market having essentially shrivelled away to almost nothing, with only two non-impact NHL trades since Oct. 1st.
Free agency, meanwhile, seems mostly about overpaying for non-core talent.
So if the Leafs aren’t going to win more right now and make a playoff push, then the alternative scenario of a good draft position is appealing, since it’s indisputably the best way to obtain quality players, not to mention affordable ones, these days.
Before we talk names, remember the draft lottery is changing things. The first three spots in the draft will now be determined through the lottery, not just the first. So while the Leafs will almost certainly move vets for picks over the next two months, there’s little reason for an out-and-out tanking effort.
Meanwhile, right now, this draft looks to be four excellent prospects deep.
Two players — American centre Auston Matthews and Finnish right winger Jesse Puljujarvi — have the earmarks of being franchise players. Matthews has been viewed in this way for some time, and if he’d been born two days earlier, he’d have been eligible for last year’s draft and would have competed with Jack Eichel for the No. 2 pick behind Connor McDavid.
Based on what we’re seeing in Helsinki, where Matthews is generating lots of offence as the No. 1 centre on a strong American team, there’s no reason to believe he won’t go first in June.
Well, actually there’s one reason, namely the player who will be wearing No. 9 for the Finns on Saturday in a quarter-final contest with Canada.
Puljujarvi has been explosive and leads the tournament in scoring. When you consider he’s almost eight months younger than Matthews, is six-foot-three and 200 pounds and appears to have a wonderfully complete game as both a playmaker and scorer, the argument that some team (Edmonton, Buffalo) might prefer a winger to a centre if they were otherwise even, the scenario of the Finn going first starts to become more plausible.
Right behind him, meanwhile, is his linemate, left winger Patrik Laine. Laine’s the same size with almost the same birthdate, and some scouts already like him better than Puljujarvi.
Lost a little in the Helsinki discussion, meanwhile, is Matthews’s linemate at the world juniors, Matthew Tkachuk, an aggressive and talented winger just like his dad, Keith, who offers a slightly different set of skills than the other three. A team looking for sandpaper (hello again, Edmonton, and you too, Toronto) might find Tkachuk’s package of skills as compelling as any of the other top prospects.
So that’s four prospects to make scouts drool, and it leaves out talented Sarnia blueliner Jakob Chychrun, who didn’t make Team Canada (maybe he should have) and was No. 2 behind Matthews on many prospect lists last fall. He’s this year’s Noah Hanifin.
Chychrun and Swedish winger Alexander Nylander, also impressive at the world juniors, make this a six-pack of elite prospects for the June draft.
Safe to say any team with a top-10 pick has the chance to get something special, and this draft might be 15 deep in terms of players likely to fit in the top six forwards or top four D-men of an NHL club somewhere down the line.
So that’s what awaits for the Leafs with their top pick if they don’t make that theoretical playoff charge which, you have to admit, would be awfully exciting for Leaf fans to watch if it actually happened.
So it’s either a surprise second-half charge for Toronto, or a very good shot at landing another blue-chip prospect to join William Nylander and Mitch Marner.
Given where this team was a year ago, these optimistic scenarios represent an extraordinary turnaround. Credit Shanahan. He’s made it happen. Damien Cox is a broadcaster with Rogers Sportsnet and a regular contributor to Hockey Night in Canada. He spent nearly 30 years covering a variety of sports for the Star, and his column appears on Saturdays. Follow him @DamoSpin.