TONY BURMAN’S 2016 PREDICTIONS
Read it here first: 10 headlines that will make waves this year — one of which will please Hillary Clinton,
Why torture yourself for 12 long, anxious and nailbiting months to discover what the top international news stories will be in 2016?
Here — in one snappy package — is an early peek at the Top 10 international headlines of 2016. Remember, you saw it here first. 1. Clinton wins U.S. presidency Hillary Clinton will narrowly defeat Republican Marco Rubio, weakened badly by Donald Trump’s decision to run as an independent candidate. Trump will come second to Rubio in the chaotic Republican race, claiming the party “ganged up” on him. Trump will exact his revenge. 2. Fascism emerges — again The politics of fear, division and xenophobia are on the move in Europe and the United States, and possibly beyond. Populist, anti-immigration and neo-fascist political parties are gaining mainstream appeal and their leaders are increasingly relying on lies in quest of their goals. Comparisons with the 1930s are no longer far-fetched. 3. Three leaders who matter It often seems that only extremists control the microphone. But not always. This year will also be shaped by moderate leaders. Germany’s Angela Merkel, dubbed “Chancellor of the Free World” by Time magazine, America’s Barack Obama and Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, will be leaders to watch. 4. Islamic State begins to unravel The war against Islamic State extremists is actually being won. Their territory is shrinking. Their financing is imperiled. And their appeal is waning. The thugs who comprise this group — hijacking the name of Islam along the way — have united the world against them and their 15 seconds of fame is almost up. 5. Syria’s civil war nears end Civil wars always end, eventually. When they have become a proxy war — involving, in this case, the U.S., Russia and Iran — they end when these wider interests are no longer served by continuing the conflict. That point will soon be reached as international peace negotiations accelerate. 6. Palestinians launch third intifada Israel’s extremist government has been complacently playing for time, but its time will run out. Although the world has been distracted by the horrors of the so-called Islamic State, the despair of Palestinians has only deepened. This will result in another Palestinian intifada, or uprising, which will become Israel’s greatest threat. 7. Canada pursues new global role It is breathtaking how quickly the selfabsorbed Canada of Stephen Harper has been relegated to the past. We can credit Justin Trudeau’s success so far while abroad. But it also stems from the global need for a progressive and unaligned country — such as Canada — to help the world get its act together. 8. Tensions rise between China, U.S. Many scholars believe the 21st century will ultimately be China’s, in terms of economic and global power. But the transition will be rocky. China’s Asian neighbours, many of them staunch American allies, feel increasingly pulled between these two superpowers. That tension will only rise in the year ahead. 9. Britain votes for Europe In 2016, Prime Minister David Cameron will win his promised in-or-out referendum on membership within Europe. Britons will narrowly vote to stay. Cameron gave himself until the end of 2017 to hold the referendum. But with Europe’s growing refugee crisis, he will move earlier to outflank his party’s angry Euro-skeptics. 10. Big change in Latin America Events in the Middle East and Europe have distracted us from a region close to home. Latin America is undergoing massive political and economic change. The dramas in Cuba, Mexico, Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina and beyond will have implications for us all. My track record In the past two years, I made predictions for the year ahead. On behalf of fellow narcissists, I give myself a passing grade on 10 of the 17 predictions — on headlines including Iran, Russia, Edward Snowden, Obamacare and climate change.
However, six predictions were clearly wrong. And one that I made for 2014 (“John Kerry salvages Obama’s presidency”) looked idiotic at the time. But now — after Kerry’s handling of the Iran nuclear agreement and the Paris climate change accord — it looks absolutely prescient for 2015. Do I get half a point? I didn’t think so. But Happy New Year anyway. Tony Burman, former head of CBC News and Al Jazeera English, teaches journalism at Ryerson University. Reach him @TonyBurman or at tony.burman@gmail.com.