Protests threaten to oust Brazilian president
Largest-ever demonstrations push for impeachment over recession and scandals
The momentum for a leadership change in South America’s largest country is gathering steam.
President Dilma Rousseff’s government is scrambling this week to contain the fallout from the largest protests in Brazil’s history: more than three million people in 100 cities, from Manaus in the north to Curitiba in the south, took to the streets Sunday to demand her impeachment.
“These are enormously large demonstrations and it is becoming more likely we will see a step down in power through constitutional means,” said Harold Trinkunas, director of the Latin America Initiative at the Brookings Institute in Washington.
But, he added, “No serious prediction in Brazilian politics can last more than 24 hours.”
Rousseff faces a perfect storm: the worst recession in a century and a protracted corruption scandal that now extends to her allies and her mentor, former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, of the Workers Party.
Prosecutors have requested that Lula — dubbed the world’s “most popular” politician when he left office in 2011 — be placed in “preventative detention” over charges of illicit enrichment.
Rousseff, whose popularity rating is now 10 per cent, is undergoing presidential impeachment proceedings in Congress over allegations she improperly used funds from state banks to cover budget gaps. She has denied wrongdoing, while Lula, who was briefly detained for questioning on March 4, has also declared his innocence.
Evidence of illegal political financing is mounting, as more and more politicians and business executives are being implicated in the scandal, which involves the state-run energy company Petrobras.
“The demonstrations have put pressure on Rousseff to fight back, but also on the Congress to proceed with the impeachment process
“These are enormously large demonstrations and it is becoming more likely we will see a step down in power.” HAROLD TRINKUNAS BROOKINGS INSTITUTE
against her,” said Humberto Saccomani, the international news editor at Valor Economico, Brazil’s largest financial newspaper.
Rousseff’s coalition partner, the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, has said it will decide in a month whether to break with the government.
Lula will meet this week with Rous- seff to discuss taking a position in her cabinet, according to reports. That would make him immune from prosecution by the judge overseeing the Petrobras investigation, though not from prosecution by Brazil’s Supreme Court.
His enduring political charisma could also strengthen Rousseff.
The country of 200 million is the second-largest economy of the five BRICS countries — which also includes Russia, India, China and South Africa — with a per-capita GDP of $15,800 (U.S.).
Until recently, resource-rich Brazil benefitted from the commodities boom, and used these gains to finance social programs, formalize the labour market and raise minimum wages.
But the downturn in the commodities sector exposed structural flaws in the economy. GDP shrank by 3.8 per cent in 2015 and may decline by a further 3 per cent this year. To recover, Brazil needs to boost productivity, expand export markets and enact other economic reforms.
Analysts say one positive aspect of the crisis is the largely peaceful nature of the protests, and the strength and independence of Brazil’s judiciary.
“In the past, there has been a high level of impunity in Brazil. But the fact that the court process is so important and that police are enforcing the law means that Brazil’s institutions are strong,” Trinkunas said.