Which is the bigger risk: Trump in White House or wave of jihadi terror?
Global monitor says Republican presidential wannabe, extremists pose equal threat to our future
The bad news: Now that the laughing is all but over, the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency represents a global threat equal to that of jihadi terror, a closely watched international risk monitor warns.
The somewhat more reassuring news: Trump’s chances of actually reaching the White House are still so unlikely, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) ranks the threat risk as “moderate” — and significantly less ominous than five other vexing world dangers.
Either way, the surprise addition of a U.S. presidential candidate to the normally unflappable EIU risk briefing marks another surreal first for Trump, whose anger-rousing march toward the Republican nomination appears increasingly unstoppable.
The EIU bakes probability into its monthly forecast of what the world should worry about, assessing “risk intensity” on a scale of 1 to 25. By that measure, both a fully empowered Trump and a worsening wave of jihadist terrorism are tied at 12, beneath such list-topping scenarios as a sudden economic slowdown in China (20), the onset of a new Cold War between Russia and the West (16) and the potential disintegration of the European Union (15). “Although we do not expect Mr. Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton, there are risks to this forecast,” the EIU cautioned, noting that serious destabilizing events between now and the election in November — “a terrorist attack on U.S. soil or a sudden economic downtown” — could turn the equation in Trump’s favour.
The EIU said that despite the candidate’s vague and often contradictory policy statements, victory for Trump “could escalate rapidly into a trade war,” targeting China and Mexico, in particular.
It also warned that, if elected, Trump’s broad-brush bellicosity toward the Middle East, coupled with his threat to ban all Muslim travel to the U.S., “would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond.”
The cautionary note from the London-based EIU, a research affiliate of the weekly newsmagazine the Econ-
“This is a tipping-point year for the party. The damage could be at least a generation, possibly longer.” MIKE MADRID REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST
omist, echoes global diplomatic jitters as foreign governments ponder just what a Trump presidency might look like, should it, in fact, come to be.
Most of the concerns are flowing quietly beneath the diplomatic radar, given the reluctance of foreign governments to be seen as publicly taking sides in an American election.
One exception is authoritarian China, where government spin doctors this week unleashed the Communist-controlled Global Times to rail against how “the rise of a racist in the U.S. political arena worries the whole world.”
Trump, or Chuanpu, as he is called in China, “has even been called another Benito Mussolini or Adolf Hitler by some western media,” the Global Times gleefully observed, before declaring the U.S. race “a heavy lesson for western democracy.”
Many take comfort in one eternal truth: America, sooner or later, will turn on Trump, living up to the famed declaration of the late British MP Enoch Powell that all political lives end in failure. But will his consignment to history’s dustbin come before or after the keys to the White House are decided?
Republicans were a party divided long before Trump launched his nativist march for power. But some on the GOP margins now fear an actual Trump victory built upon anti-immigrant hostility could render the party unelectable for years to come.
Republican strategist Mike Madrid sounded precisely that warning at last week’s Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington in a presentation titled “Talking to Minority Voters.” Trump’s dog-whistle message on immigration, the California-based strategist warned, follows in the footsteps of the alienating approach that galvanized an entire generation of Latino voters against the GOP in California.
“This is a tipping-point year for the party,” Madrid said, suggesting Republicans faced the prospect of a nationwide loss of Latino support. “The damage could be at least a generation, possibly longer.”
Should Trump actually reach the White House, the Economist Intelligence Unit noted that the U.S. system of checks and balances is likely to align sharply against his ability to act recklessly.
“It is worth noting that the innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr. Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress — albeit such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policy-making,” the EIU said.