How O’Leary can follow Trump’s path to victory
When Donald Trump’s name first surfaced as a possible candidate for the Republican presidential nomination he was sitting in the single digits in the polls, dismissed by most analysts as a loudmouthed, egotistical businessman and reality TV celebrity with little chance of winning.
Today, Trump is racing ever closer to victory, his campaign fuelled by his own money and his unapologetic pandering to the fears, hatreds and anger of many Americans.
Watching all of this closely is Kevin O’Leary, Canada’s homegrown version of Trump.
O’Leary, the high-profile multimillionaire who gained celebrity status as a panelist on the CBC TV program Dragons’ Den, is considering a run for the federal Conservative party leadership. O’Leary claims Canada is “broken” and that he’s the person to make it great again.
Like Trump was at first in the U.S., O’Leary is being dismissed here by the party establishment, “the elites” and many pundits as merely a rich, obnoxious businessman and reality TV star with little hope of winning.
In fact, though, O’Leary may have the best chance of emerging victorious in a race that is expected to have eight to 10 official candidates.
That’s because a clear path to victory for O’Leary has already been set by Trump. If O’Leary opts to follow it, then his chances of success will soar.
First, Trump has successfully tapped into the anger prevalent among many Americans who feel left out of the economic recovery and are fearful of or despise elected politicians, immigrants, terrorists, Muslims, Mexicans, taxes and more.
In Canada, there’s a similar simmering anger toward “elites” and establishment politicians by people who fear their jobs and economic futures are at risk, who feel ignored by politicians in Ottawa and who are worried about everything from Syrian refugees to taxes.
Such people are looking for candidates who aren’t afraid to loudly and without fear state what’s on their own minds. That’s exactly what happened when the late Rob Ford won the 2010 Toronto mayoral race by a wide margin. While O’Leary likely won’t be as outrageous as Trump or Ford, he’s already following their path to victory by stirring up images of a “broken” country and incompetent politicians.
Second, like Trump, O’Leary can expect to garner massive media exposure, which will play a huge role in his gaining strength in the polls.
In America, Trump has dominated the media coverage, especially on television where network executives see Trump as good for ratings. Some analysts believe Trump has become the front-runner because TV producers have given him so much coverage.
O’Leary, with his bombastic and outspoken views, also makes for fun TV viewing. Expect to see lots of him if he declares his candidacy.
Third, just as Trump is rolling over a weak lineup of Republican candidates, O’Leary will be facing a weak field of dull, uninspiring political failures and leftovers from the Harper era.
Once the campaign starts, O’Leary should have little trouble putting distance in the minds of Conservative voters between himself and the likes of shopworn politicians such as Peter MacKay, Tony Clement, Jason Kenney and others.
Fourth, like Trump, O’Leary is rich and could easily fund his leadership bid out of his own pocket or those of his rich friends. Under party rules, candidates can spend up to $5 million on their campaigns. Raising that level of money will be extremely hard for most of O’Leary’s potential challengers.
Fifth, the party’s rules give each paid-up party member a chance to vote for the leader. That’s a bonus for O’Leary because it means the party establishment cannot try to broker a winner as they might have been able to do at a delegate convention.
If O’Leary can attract thousands of new voters to the party, just as Trump has done, then he could easily ride to victory with their support rather than relying on the established party leadership to give its blessing to a preferred candidate.
Still, the campaign road to voting day on May 27, 2017 will be long.
Like Trump, O’Leary will start down the road behind in the polls. The most recent poll by Abacus Data Inc. places O’Leary a distant second with just 18-per-cent support. MacKay tops the poll with 33 per cent while Lisa Raitt has 10 per cent, Maxime Bernier 10 per cent, Clement 9 per cent, Kenney 8 per cent, Michael Chong 6 per cent and Kellie Leitch 3 per cent.
But there is a path ahead — one that could easily lead O’Leary to victory just as it seems to be for Donald Trump.
In America, Trump has dominated the media coverage, especially on TV where executives see Trump as good for ratings. O’Leary, with his bombastic views, also makes for fun viewing
Bob Hepburn’s column appears Sunday. bhepburn@thestar.ca