Defeating Daesh: how the caliphate is shrinking
Behind the shock and fury of the attacks in Brussels, Daesh is losing ground on all sides. As Daesh-held territory recedes, is this the beginning of the end for the self-proclaimed Islamic State? Here are the key inflection points.
Palmyra
Reclaimed March 27 by forces loyal to Bashar Assad, the retaking of the battered UNESCO-ranked Roman ruins and the desert city that adjoins them was seen as a propaganda triumph for the Russian-backed Syrian dictator.
Syrian activists decry any talk of Palmyra’s “liberation,” arguing instead the city has “just been transferred from one tyranny to another.” But the changing landscape brings Assad one large and unexpected step nearer to Raqqa.
Raqqa
The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces — an overwhelmingly Kurdish militia, with a too-small smattering of Syrian Arab fighters — made dramatic gains in recent months, pushing deeply south from Kobani before pulling up short of Raqqa, ostensibly to await the addition of Arab reinforcements.
But recent reports of worsening conditions within the city — severe water and electricity shortages, spiralling food prices, soaring Daesh taxes — now suggest many of Raqqa’s estimated 500,000 residents may be ready to welcome alternative rule of any kind, even one involving Kurdish soldiers.
Mosul
The Iraqi government announced last week — not for the first time — the long-awaited military campaign to evict Daesh from its single largest stronghold, the city of Mosul. And once again — not for the first time — the operation didn’t get far, winning just three of the first nine target villages before stalling out.
However, Brookings senior fellow Kenneth M. Pollack suggests the fall of Mosul could, in fact, happen sooner than any of us think. Pollack’s forecast of an early victory in as little as six months places heavy emphasis on the organization roles of 5,000 U.S. troops in Iraq.
But all this comes with the seemingly eternal caveat — the absence of a political framework to translate the military defeat of Daesh into a peace strong enough to hold Iraq’s fragmented pieces together for the long haul.
Ramadi
Though Daesh was pushed out of Ramadi after a grinding eight-month battle, there are important lessons in the mine-infested mess left behind — an urban wasteland with as many as 2,000 buildings completely destroyed. Aid officials now are emphasizing the importance of speed in the campaign for Mosul. A report warns that a slow, withering Ramadi-like war for Mosul could displace more than a million new Iraqi refugees.