Five reasons the Jays will be better (and five why they’ll be worse)
As good as the Blue Jays were last season, particularly in the second half, there are reasons to believe they could be even better this year. But given baseball’s unpredictability, there are just as many reasons to believe they could be worse. Here’s a look at the half-full and half-empty scenarios:
The Jays will be better because of . . .
A full season of Troy Tulowitzki: When Tulowitzki arrived from Colorado a few days before the trade deadline last season, he immediately stabilized the infield defence. The five-time all-star also led the Jays in home runs and RBIs this spring and figures to make what was by far the league’s best offence even better.
A full season of Marcus Stroman: It’s easy to forget that Marcus Stroman and David Price together made just 15 starts for the Jays last year, given the impact they had in the homestretch. While Stroman doesn’t have Price’s pedigree, if he makes 30 starts he’ll be more important than Price was.
Improved defence: Often overshadowed by the world-beating offence was how much better the Jays were defensively once Tulowitzki replaced Jose Reyes and Ben Revere took over in left field. They actually finished with the league’s highest defensive efficiency rating, which measures ability to turn balls in play into outs.
The back end of the bullpen: Drew Storen gives the Jays a formidable late-inning relief trio, with incumbent closer Roberto Osuna and lefty Brett Cecil. They aren’t as fearsome as New York’s (Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances) or Boston’s (Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, Carson Smith) bullpens, but they should be able to keep pace.
Rotation depth: While the focus is always on the five that open the season, the Jays used 12 different starting pitchers last season, which is not uncommon. They have more depth this year — a group headed by Gavin Floyd, Jesse Chavez and Drew Hutchison.
The Jays will be worse because of . . .
An unproven rotation: Only R.A. Dickey has previously thrown 200 innings. If you include the post-season, Marco Estrada reached the mark last year, and long reliever Gavin Floyd did it eight years ago. But beyond Dickey, the Jays — with Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez — lack a proven workhorse.
Father time: The most important hitters — Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin — are all 30 or older. Encarnacion and Martin turned 33 this winter. Baustista is 35. Their prime years are behind them and the risk of injury and regression has increased.
Regression candidates: Chris Colabello enjoyed the highest batting average on balls in play in the majors (.411) in more than 90 years (!). There’s no chance he’ll replicate that rate of good fortune. Similarly, Marco Estrada benefited from the lowest batting average against on balls in play in 27 years (.216).
A shallow bullpen: The addition of Drew Storen bolsters the back end of the bullpen, but there are question marks elsewhere. Floyd and Jesse Chavez may be able spot starters, but they have middling track records in relief, while Arnold Leon, Ryan Tepera and Joe Biagini are largely unproven.
Lack of position player depth: While the lineup is arguably the best in baseball, injuries to a couple of key players could send them scrambling. No team carries a bench full of stars, but the Jays are particularly vulnerable to injuries to Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin. Few serviceable corner infielders or catchers wait in the wings.