Expect second round to go full seven games
We focus on three keys to success for each team
Storylines will emerge as the Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat get into their NBA Eastern Conference semifinal that begins Tuesday night at the Air Canada Centre.
Going in, though, here are three keys to success for each team:
RAPTORS WILL WIN IF …
Lowry gets untracked: All-star point guard Kyle Lowry had an atrocious shooting series against the Indiana Pacers, with a 31 per cent field goal percentage after averaging nearly 43 per cent for the regular season. He chalked it up to the way the Pacers guarded him, forcing him to shoot on the move more than he liked. The Heat are likely to mimic what worked for Indiana by trapping and blitzing Lowry but he has to find a way to become a more consistent shooting threat. DeRozan exploits advantage: DeMar DeRozan averaged 29.3 points per game against the Heat this season and shot 49 per cent from the field while doing it. Miami is likely to use a combination of Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson on DeRozan and might give long rookie Justise Winslow a try. But if DeRozan can play “freer” than he did in the first six games against Indiana, it’s hard to imagine Miami slowing him much.
They ratchet up defence: Miami isn’t the greatest shooting team all around, and if the Raptors can limit the open looks, there will be long stretches of games where the Heat simply struggle to score. Dwane Casey has been preaching a team-oriented defence where the Raptors “play on a string” and if they do that, it’ll make it easier to handle any more shooting slumps from their all-star backcourt.
HEAT WILL WIN IF …
Whiteside runs wild: Hassan Whiteside can be a beast of a rim protector — he had a Miami playoff series record 24 blocked shots against Charlotte, and if they can get that kind of play from him it takes away the ability of the Raptors guards to get to the rim and finish. The trouble with Whiteside is fouls and he has to fight the problem of picking up a couple of cheap early personals.
Ride the Wade: Raptors coach Dwane Casey said Sunday: “Dwyane Wade is back being a young Dwyane Wade” and that was a bang-on as- sessment. Wade is the leader of that team in every imaginable way and he has to play in this series as well as he did against Charlotte for Miami to win. He’s not The Flash that much any more but nothing will faze him.
Backups do their job: The Heat aren’t all that deep — the bench is primarily Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson and one of Gerald Green or Josh McRoberts and they will have to more than carry their weight if the series drags on.
Tyler Johnson’s return from rotator cuff surgery will help but how effective he can be is questionable. But if the bench over-performs, things start looking better.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN
It has all the makings of an even series, there are lots of similarities between the teams.
There’s going to be a lot of small ball played and perhaps some unconventional lineups that might turn a game around.
The “adjustments” are going to be far less obvious than the starting lineup changes fans saw in Raptors-Pacers, there aren’t a lot of secrets or options for either team.
There is no question the crazy atmosphere at the Air Canada Centre on Sunday played a role in the game’s outcome, all things considered, that might be what it comes down to again.
Pick: Toronto in seven.