Brown’s approval rating solid as Wynne’s remains stagnant

Ontario premier maintains confidence of just 1/5 voters, according to Forum Research

Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown’s lead in Ontario’s political horse race continues to firm up amid stagnant approval ratings for Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne, a new Forum Research poll shows.

The province-wide survey by Forum Research Inc. continues to paint a troubling picture for Wynne with the latest results indicating she maintains the confidence of just one fifth of voters in the province.

The survey, conducted on April 25, reveals that 39 per cent of Ontarians would vote for the Progressive Conservatives if an election were held today, while 34 per cent would vote Liberal.

The polling agency further found that of respondents who voted Liberal in 2014, 13 per would vote either PC or NDP this time around.

Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said this suggests the Liberals, as a centre party, “are bleeding at both ends” as left- and right-wing supporters “melt away equally” to endorse other parties at opposite ends of the political spectrum.

The results also suggest the PCs would take 53 seats out of 107 in the provincial legislature — one fewer than required for a majority govern- ment. The Liberals would capture 33 seats, while the NDP would acquire 21.

When it comes to leadership, the survey also showed 24 per cent of respondents identified Brown as the leader who would make the best premier. Wynne and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath were tied in second place, each grabbing 15 per cent of respondents’ support.

Of note, 28 per cent of respondents believe none of the current party leaders would make a good premier.

Among party supporters, 38 per cent of Liberal voters do not approve of Wynne as the party’s leader. Yet, the premier maintains 47 per cent of support among respondents who back the Liberals.

“The Liberals with their own leader should be doing better,” added Bozinoff.

Meanwhile, Brown appears to enjoy better reception among his PC voter fan base.

Just over half, or 51 per cent, of PC voters said they supported him, while 14 per cent did not.

Over half, or 53 per cent, of respondents who identified as New Democrats said they approved of Horwath while13 per cent did not. The rest did not have an opinion. But while Wynne and Brown have maintained consistent approval ratings when taking into account all respondents, Horwath’s approval rating has “decayed,” according to Forum.

Her 38 per cent total in February has dropped to 32 per cent over the past few months.

“(Her) usually sterling approval ratings have been starting to slip lately,” said Bozinoff.

The survey of1,157 randomly selected Ontarian adults was conducted by interactive voice response. The results are considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Some data have been statistically weighted by age, region and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population as reflected in the census data.

Poll results are housed in the data library of the University of Toronto’s political science department.