CHANGING NUMBERS, CHANGING PLANS

February 2012

Despite former mayor Rob Ford’s declaration that predecessor David Miller’s light-rail Transit City plan is dead, council affirms support for a seven-stop LRT to replace the aging Scarborough RT at $1.48 billion funded by the province with a projected ridership of 8,000 in the busiest direction at the busiest time.

May 2013

Council reverses course and backs an out-of-order motion from Councillor Glenn De Baeremaeker stating support for a three-stop subway extension, which has an estimated peak ridership of 9,500.

July

City staff provide a new peak ridership figure of 14,000 — enough to justify the low end of a subway’s capacity. Council members, this time voting 28-16, say they prefer a subway and approve scrapping the LRT.

October

Council approves a three-stop subway extension and in doing so, a citywide property tax increase to fund the additional capital costs of the $3.56-billion plan. They also forfeit at least $75 million in lost work done on the LRT. The vote is 24-20.

July 2015

Chief planner Jennifer Keesmaat, facing ongoing questions and criticism of the 14,000 ridership figure, says it was produced as the result of “rushed” analysis during a “suboptimal” process that saw the LRT scrapped. She promised updated ridership numbers would be forthcoming.

January 2016

Following the election that saw Mayor John Tory promise to build a subway to Scarborough in his bid to oust Ford, Keesmaat and city staff produce an “optimized” transit plan that reduces the three-stop subway to a one-stop “express” subway.

March

Staff release ridership numbers for a three-stop subway no longer on the table and the impact of building Tory’s own heavy-rail SmartTrack plan. Those new numbers confirm worries that the two lines would cannibalize each other’s riders. Ridership numbers for a one-stop subway are not made available.