Wynne’s tough path to victory
With two years to go before the next election, Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne must climb a tough, high mountain if she is to lead her Liberal party to a re-election victory.
Indeed, the climb is so steep that many Liberals believe her task is nearly impossible and could end far short of the summit, opening the way for a huge victory for the Conservatives.
The reasons for their gloomy outlook are obvious:
Wynne is down in the polls, scandals past and present continue to haunt the party, some key policies are highly unpopular, and the fact the Liberals will have been in office for 15 straight years by 2018 will lead to powerful calls of “time for change.”
But despite all the bad news, Liberal strategists believe there’s a path up and over the mountain for Wynne.
It’s an extremely narrow path, though, one strewn with pitfalls that will require Wynne to have steady feet — and a whole lot of luck.
Wynne took the first step up the path this week when she shuffled her cabinet, bringing in seven new ministers, including four women. It was a good start because Wynne needed a younger, more aggressive executive group.
Still, the challenges Wynne faces are daunting.
The most recent poll, conducted May 31 by Forum Research Inc., indicated only 30 per cent of voters back the Liberals. The Tories are at 40 per cent and the NDP 21 per cent. If an election were held now, the Conservatives would form a majority government.
Wynne’s support has dropped as she deals with controversial decisions, such as selling off parts of Hydro One to pay for infrastructure projects, defends actions to close parts of local hospitals and struggles to get clear of scandals from gas plants and e-health spending to Pan Am Games’ executive bonuses.
And two of her key initiatives, the Ontario Retirement Pension Plan and the cap-and-trade plan aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, will likely become ever more unpopular just as the formal election period nears. That’s because both programs will start to hit homeowners, employees and businesses in the wallet with higher energy costs and payroll deductions at the time they are preparing to go to the polls.
Adding to the negative mix is the presence of a popular Liberal government in Ottawa. That’s significant because Ontario voters have a long tradition of balancing the party in power in Ottawa with the party in office at Queen’s Park. If history holds, that means the federal Liberals under Justin Trudeau are actually a powerful drag on Wynne’s chances of winning. So what is the path for Wynne? As a start, her advisers believe many of Wynne’s initiatives are quite popular, especially the provincial pension plan. The strategy leading up to the election is to promote heavily these programs, especially the pension plan and the multibillion-dollar infrastructure plans for roads, subways and hospitals. Expect to see Wynne’s high profile at the opening of the subway to York University and the ribbon-cutting on the 407 extension.
Liberal insiders also believe Wynne will benefit from a stronger Ontario economy in 2018, with more jobs, better wages and a balanced government budget.
She will also be helped through the rise in the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122 for the 2018 election. Many of the new ridings are in urban regions where the Liberals won most of the seats in the last election. Liberal organizers will concentrate their efforts on these new ridings and work to prop up current MPPs in vulnerable seats.
Next, the coming campaign will highlight Wynne’s own leadership, portraying her as a smart, strong and compassionate leader, who isn’t afraid to tackle the big issues facing the province.
At the same time, Wynne is expected to start attacking — gently — the new Conservative Leader Patrick Brown. The goal will be to question his authenticity, pointing out how his strategy of moving the Tories to the political centre contrasts sharply with his own hardright voting record when he was a federal MP in the Harper government.
As well, the NDP under leader Andrea Horwath seems to be going nowhere, which would help Wynne given that many NDP voters could opt to vote strategically for the Liberals in order to block the Conservatives as they did in 2014.
Finally, Wynne needs to adopt some of Trudeau’s “sunny ways” approach to politics.
Instead of always telling people how morally hurt she is — and how hurt they should be — because of such downer issues as racism in Ontario and greenhouse gases, she needs to start making people feel good about themselves and about the provinces.
It worked for Trudeau, and it could work for Wynne.
No one on her team is deluding themselves. They know Wynne is up against it. But they remain hopeful, if not yet confident, that by taking one careful step at a time, Wynne may pull off what seems impossible right now and win the next election.
Bob Hepburn’s column appears Thursday. bhepburn@thestar.ca