TRANSIT TRUTH
Star reporters help separate fact from fiction when it comes to Scarborough subway,
People who advocate pushing the BloorDanforth subway line farther into Scarborough with a six-kilometre tunnel say it’s a good city-building move.
Politicians, city bureaucrats and other proponents defend the pared-down, one-stop plan from Kennedy station to the Scarborough Town Centre, saying it’s justified by accepted principles of transit planning.
Critics counter that it’s a subway for a subway’s sake, political pandering that costs billions more, when cheaper options — such as a seven-stop LRT that still has signed approval from the province — would allow the city to build more transit.
After the city recently released new projections for expected ridership on the one-stop extension — 7,300 in the busiest hour — advocates such as Mayor John Tory and chief planner Jennifer Keesmaat doubled down on the benefits of the $2-billion project.
The Star fact-checked some of the claims in support of the subway.
Is a subway needed for the number of riders expected?
The claim: On CBC’s Metro Morning, Tory said: “The real point is that Scarborough is the only part of our city that does not have its city centre connected by higher order transit — a subway.”
For years, especially during the Rob Ford era, advocates argued that a high-capacity subway is the best way to make that connection, and anything else would be less than Scarborough “deserves.” That argument was bolstered when staff suddenly offered an updated ridership projection in July 2013: 14,000 riders at peak hours — enough to just barely justify building a subway.
The facts: Ridership and capacity aren’t the only important factors in deciding the best choice of transit, but they do help determine the best value for money.
The more recent projection of just 7,300 peak-hour riders is lower than what was expected for the sevenstop LRT (8,000); lower than the TTC’s original projection for a threestop subway (9,500); and little more than half of the 2013 projection of 14,000.
The one-stop extension could open in 2023. It’s projected to hit 7,300 peak riders by 2031, at best. And just 4,500 new daily riders would be drawn to the subway if it replaces the Scarborough RT.
The ridership projection shrank with shifting plans for Toronto’s overall transit network. To avoid duplication with Tory’s SmartTrack plan, which would run parallel to the subway, staff removed two stations from the subway plan. That reduced costs, but left just one new station for subway riders.
The TTC says the Bloor-Danforth subway is running at capacity, at just under 26,000. With plans to upgrade signalling — allowing more frequent trains — capacity could grow to 33,000 by 2031, when the subway would already reach into Scarborough.
But with just 7,300 peak riders, trains would be 80 per cent empty between the Scarborough Town Centre and Kennedy station. Even an LRT — with a maximum capacity of 15,000 — would be half-empty on that route at rush hour.
Would Scarborough perform as well as other end-of-line stations?
The claim: Tory says the newest ridership projection must be considered in the context of other terminal stations.
Kipling and Islington, at the western end of Line 2, have 7,300 peak hour riders, while Downsview, at the end of Line 1, has just 2,950.
Tory argued these numbers show the Scarborough extension is justified, because it would draw at least as many passengers as today’s endof-line stops. “I don’t hear anybody suggesting we should close down the Bloor-Danforth subway at Kipling because of inadequate passenger load,” he said.
Keesmaat echoed Tory’s argument, telling the Star the Scarborough extension “is only one stop along a much larger corridor” and that in 2031, trains that begin in Scarbor- ough will be more than 60 per cent full by the time they reach Main. The facts: Experts agree Tory and Keesmaat have a strong point. While subway capacity is 15,000 to 36,000 riders per hour, it would be a big problem if that many people boarded at the first station, leaving no room for passengers at later stops.
“That’s a valid argument,” agrees transit expert Steve Munro. But he and others argue that an accurate comparison should take into account that the Scarborough extension would be six kilometres long with just one stop.
Most TTC stations are much closer together. Within six kilometres of Kipling, there are four stops; within that distance from Downsview, four stops; from Finch, three stops.
Taking distance into account, the single Scarborough stop doesn’t compare well. The 7,300 peak riders projection is roughly on par with the 8,300 people who board between Downsview and Glencairn stations during morning rush hour, but significantly less than the 11,200 who get on between Kipling and Jane, and barely one-third of the 21,100 who board between Finch and York Mills.
The Scarborough extension fares worse when measured by all-day ridership.
City staff expect 31,000 people a day would ride from Scarborough Town Centre to Kennedy by 2031. The five stations from Kipling to Jane currently see 66,355 boardings a day — more than double the number the new extension would carry 15 years from now. The four stops from Finch to York Mills see more than triple the Scarborough subway’s projected all-day boardings, at 96,660.
“Kipling only has one kilometre to the next station, and this is going to have five or six. So you’ve got a long stretch with relatively low ridership,” said Lee Sims, director of transportation for the IBI consultant group.
“There’s not enough demand” to build more stations, he added. The population along the route is too sparse.
The Scarborough extension compares more positively to the Sheppard subway, but that underperforming line is not considered a project to emulate.
So, is the cost justified?
The claim: Keesmaat says the subway “provides the most appropriate service to an urban growth node” and would be “faster and transfer-free.” Tory has said the city spent “hundreds of millions” building previous extensions and he is “just trying to provide some honest leadership, honest in a sense that it says that we can get more transit for the same money and do better than the previous plan.” The facts: In 1980, extensions at both ends of the Bloor-Danforth line — Kipling and Kennedy — cost a total of $110 million, about $330 million in today’s dollars. That’s a fraction of the Scarborough project’s $2 billion.
The seven-stop LRT would have cost $1.48 billion, fully funded by the province. By cancelling the LRT, the city lost at least $75 million in “sunk costs” — work already completed.
The LRT agreement also included a signed commitment from the province on future operating and maintenance costs. But when council opted for a subway, it assumed responsibility to pay those costs. If the one-stop extension operates at just 20 per cent capacity by 2031, city taxpayers will pay heftily to subsidize it. The city and TTC have so far provided no operating cost estimates.
There are other unknowns. The 7,300 peak ridership number assumes that every train on Line 2 goes all the way to Scarborough Town Centre. Making that possible will require upgraded signalling and extra subway cars compatible with those upgrades to maintain frequent service. While the TTC wants to build the extension with new signalling, cars equipped to work with it aren’t on order until 2026. The TTC would need to speed up plans to replace the fleet or upgrade trains.
As to hopes of spurring growth in Scarborough, Keesmaat herself told council during the July 2013 debate that, “based on the criteria that we have for great city building, looking at economic development, supporting healthy neighbourhoods, affordability, choice in the system, the LRT option, in fact, is more desirable.”
The LRT would have required a 40-second transfer at Kennedy, but put nearly twice as many people within walking distance of a stop.
Even with plans to use savings from eliminating two subway stops to pay for an 18-stop LRT along Eglinton Ave. East, Munro says spending more than $2 billion is a loss for transit users.
“Because you’ve said, ‘I must have a subway,’ you have spent a couple of billion dollars just to get to Scarborough Town Centre, and that money is not available to build additional capacity elsewhere in the network — and that’s the real trade-off.”