Four for the Price of one
The Jays’ decision to let ace go might have been the right one
In explaining why the Blue Jays did not even make an offer to David Price this off-season, team president Mark Shapiro was blunt.
“We had multiple holes to fill,” he said, adding that the team could not afford, within the parameters of its payroll, to commit what it would take to sign Price to a single player.
“David Price would’ve represented almost our entire off-season,” he added in a separate interview.
It was a sensible explanation, if decidedly unsexy.
Price, of course, went to the Boston Red Sox, who signed him to a record sevenyear, $217-million deal, which pays him $30 million this season.
The Jays also spent $30 million on their pitching staff this off-season (not including the players already under contract), but they spread the money around to four different players: Marco Estrada, who is earning $10.5 million this season and $26 million over the course of the two-year deal; J.A. Happ, who was signed to a three-year, $36-million deal; Jesse Chavez, who was acquired via trade from the Oakland A’s and awarded $4 million in arbitration; and Gavin Floyd, who was signed to a one-year, $1-million deal.
Looking at the average annual value of the Estrada and Happ deals, the combined salaries of the four pitchers neatly adds up to exactly $30 million.
The Jays also acquired reliever Drew Storen from the Washington Nationals for Ben Revere, but their respective contracts — plus the cash the Nats included in the deal — effectively cancelled out the cost.
With the Major League Baseball season almost at the halfway mark, we thought we would look back on the Jays’ decision — which ostensibly favoured quantity over quality — by comparing Price’s performance with that of the four pitchers the Jays chose to pay instead.
INNINGS PITCHED Price: 99.2. Jays four: 233.1
Price has pitched at least 200 innings in five of the last six seasons and the durable lefty leads the American League in that regard this season with 99 2⁄ frames. But he had little 3 chance in this comparison. The Jays’ foursome — two starters and two relievers — has combined to throw 233 1⁄ innings this year, or 2.3 times 3 Price’s output. Barring injury, Estrada and Happ will come close to doubling Price’s total even before including the contributions of Chavez and Floyd.
Edge: Jays
QUALITY OF INNINGS Price: 4.24 ERA. Jays four: 3.32 ERA
Here’s where the comparison gets a little more interesting. By most measures, Estrada alone has been a better pitcher than Price, who struggled badly in his first month in Boston. Estrada, who has held opposing hitters to an MLB-best .168 batting average this season, has allowed 1.7 fewer earned runs per nine innings this season. Happ, meanwhile, has arguably been at least as good as Price. He has averaged almost as many innings per start and allowed roughly the same number of baserunners, but Price has a much higher strikeout rate. Chavez has settled in nicely after a tough start to the season, while Floyd is trending in the opposite direction.
Edge: Jays, but expect Price to continue to narrow this gap.
OVERALL CONTRIBUTIONS Price: 1.8 fWAR. Jays four: 2.7 fWAR
You would think there would be a bigger disparity here, but Price is handsomely rewarded in the Wins Above Replacement formula for his high strikeout rate — as he should be. If we look at Win Probability Added, a metric that calculates individual contributions to a team’s chances of winning and then credits or debits players accordingly, the comparison is starker. Estrada sits third in the American League with a 1.87 WPA, behind only Chris Sale and Colby Lewis. Happ ranks 15th in the league, while Chavez is tied for 30th among relievers. Floyd has a negative mark, however, giving the foursome a total of 2.83. Price, meanwhile, is sitting at 0.0, since he did more to hurt the Red Sox chances of winning in five of his first dozen starts.
Edge: Jays
WHAT’S THE PAYOFF?
It’s always difficult to assess a deal when it’s still in the midst of playing out, but in this quick glance, a few months into the season, the Jays decision to spread their dollars around to multiple pitchers rather than invest heavily in Price looks like the shrewder move. The Jays also have less committed to their foursome. Estrada is only under contract through 2017, while Happ is signed through 2018; Chavez and Floyd are both free agents after this season. But if the Red Sox end up in a onegame playoff and Price throws a complete-game shutout, all the number-crunching will be moot.