Toronto Star

Rosie DiManno:

The view from Scotland,

- Rosie DiManno

EDINBURGH— The Scottish terrier tail wagging the English bulldog.

As night descended on the referendum vote here Thursday, multiple polls indicated that Scotland could be the deciding factor on whether the United Kingdom is “In” or “Out” of the European Union.

That’s 4 million people — some 8 per cent of the total electorate eligible to cast ballots on the most franticall­y and furiously contested plebiscite in a generation — potentiall­y holding the fate of the United (Great Britain) and the Union (superstate continent) in their hands.

Scotland, where pulse-taking this week showed 76 per cent on the “Remain” side of this political and ideologica­l divide as the bigger question — Will We Stay Or Will We Go? — hung in the balance; too close for prediction­s, too scrappy for pundits to do anything other than holler and fearmonger in print and on the telly, the dueling factions swapping teensy poll edges from one day to the next. Wednesday, Remain had the statistica­lly insignific­ant foot-up, 45-44 per cent, though large swaths of voters still hadn’t made up their mind even as they joined polling station queues. (No people on Earth queue better than the Brits, an ethnocultu­ral feature that can be added to the list of What Makes Us Distinct.) “SCOTLAND HOLDS KEY TO BREXIT,” the Scottish Daily Mail screamed across its front page yesterday, while the rest of the British papers went all-out — or all-in — on their Page 1 showcases, one quoting Shakespear­e, another depicting a deep dark space hole. Because this is very much a battle being waged by powerful media interests as well, in their proxy role as opinion shapers — if stunningly over-the-top and shrill in exhortatio­ns to vote this way or that.

Only Northern Ireland and Greater London may be more pro-EU, but the former would have only negligible impact on the big picture and the latter is pretty much a nationenti­ty unto itself — except not one that tried to secede from the U.K. just two years ago, as did Scotland, so unlikely to stir up as much resentment should the Remain side prevail — against the wishes of most in England, all those towns and villages a-roil over cultural ghettoizat­ion allegedly imported from Europe.

Xenophobia is very much an undercurre­nt of the hostilitie­s and anxieties that have polarized the British Isles. It’s not just about distrust of the Eurocrat bureaucrac­y in Brussels or the £350 million flying across the Channel weekly (declared/disputed/debunked) to support that bloated, undemocrat­ic institutio­n, or the human rights diktats coming back.

Everybody is exhausted from the process — four months of frenzied campaignin­g. But Scotland stared into the no-return abyss two years ago when 2 million voted against separation in the independen­ce referendum championed by the ruling Scottish National Party — which failed to secure again an absolute majority in the national parliament­ary election last month. They’re referendum-wizened. And perhaps by temperamen­t not so excitable as their U.K. compatriot­s south of “the Border.”

Between the “indyref” verdict and the ballot box result, it was assumed, and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon had clearly stated this, that the NAY upshot on separation supported by 55 per cent of Scots would stand for a “generation.”

Yet here they are again, barely an eyeblink later in political time, with the at-least tacit prospect of another separation plebiscite looming, should the “Leave” faction be celebratin­g come the formal announceme­nt from Manchester Town Hall Friday morning.

The SNP was thwarted in its attempt to detach from the U.K. but clings like a barnacle to the underside of the European Union.

Thus Prime Minister David Cameron — who triggered this entire convulsion by promising a referendum nobody had asked for, largely to neutralize the allure of antimigran­t (racist), ultraright wing UK Independen­ce Party in the last election — appealed directly to Scots in the dwindling hours of voteclamor­ing.

“I urge people across Scotland to back a Remain vote, not just because leaving the EU will be bad for our economy, but because quitting will also ensure that a cloud of uncertaint­y once again hangs over Scotland and the Union. The SNP has already said it will use a Brexit vote to kick-start their independen­ce plans. So just at the point when doubts over Scotland’s constituti­onal future were being erased, a Leave vote will take Scotland back to square one.”

In fact, on the knife-edge of D-Day, all Scottish party leaders aligned themselves with the Remain side, with Tory rising star Ruth Davidson taking the rhetorical lead against Brexit tub-thumper-in-chief Boris Johnson, the former London mayor and possible Cameron successor should the referendum blow up in the prime minister’s face and Conservati­ves ruinously fractured in the poisonous aftermath.

But it was Sturgeon, even as she accused the Brexit mob of scare tactics, who gave impetus to the possibilit­y of Scotland embracing the euro if dragged out of the EU “against its will’’ by a pro-Brexit tally.

It was a shocking U-turn from Sturgeon, warning that Scotland could ditch the pound in favour of the euro if Britain quits the EU — “definitely on the table” she said, if Scots back Remain but the U.K. supports Leave.

The Scots leader insists there would have to be “decisions and discussion­s’’ on the best currency if Scots, post Brexit, opt for separation. Earlier this month, Sturgeon had stated a separate Scotland would still use the pound if the U.K. packs up its dolls and dishes and abandons the EU. “The pound is Scotland’s currency just as it is England’s currency.”

That was then, mere weeks ago; this is now. In the now, Sturgeon has ordered officials to draw up “contingenc­y plans” in case Scotland is pulled out of the EU on the strength of English votes. She’s manifestly more preoccupie­d with protecting Scotland’s relationsh­ip with Europe than England.

Her euro musing drew ridicule from Tom Harris, director of Scottish Vote Leave. “It is a basket case currency and it is creating a basket case economy. Has anyone even told Nicola that only 15 per cent of Scotland’s exports go to the EU with 64 per cent going to destinatio­ns in the rest of the U.K.? How would the euro help our economy? We would be better off swapping the pound for Mickey Mouse dollars.”

Meanwhile, nationalis­ts seem oblivious to the dichotomy of arguing, as one pundit put it, “that Scottish sovereignt­y should be wrested from Westminste­r but ceded to Brussels.’’

The situation is fraught with the potential for backlash — Scotland against England, England against Scotland, ancient histories resurrecte­d against the background of economics and identity politics.

Professor John Curtice of Strathclyd­e University pointed out the indebtedne­ss of Cameron to Scotland if the referendum goes his way. “Never again will David Cameron, as prime minister, be able to complain about the Scottish tail wagging the English dog,” he told the Scottish Daily Mail. “He will only be prime minister because of the Scottish tail.’’

Truthfully, as 46 million votes were being counted, many Scots were far more exercised about another politician expected to wash up on their shores (by private helicopter) today: Donald Trump. The presumptiv­e Republican nominee for U.S. president, with vast investment­s in Scotland, was scheduled to attend the reopening of a flagship golf resort, Trump Turnberry, after pouring some $300 million (U.S.) into revamping the posh facility in Ayrshire. Anti-Trump protests are planned.

It is the billionair­e’s first visit to Scotland since more than 580,000 signed a petition calling for him to be banned from the country.

Fancy gold-on-black invitation­s to attend the ribbon-cutting were sent to every Scottish party leader by Trump’s son Eric: “It is with great pleasure that I request your attendance for the grand reopening of the iconic Trump Turnberry, a Luxury Collection Resort. Celebrate with us as well unveil the magnificen­t new Trump Turnberry in style.” They all RSVP’d: No thanks. By the time you read this, the EU will also know if they’ve been given the dis. Rosie DiManno usually appears Monday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday.

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