Canada stands to benefit from Brexit fallout
Anti-immigration sentiment spreading in the U.K. and the U.S. could spur investment here
Canada is less susceptible than some of its international allies to the anti-globalization forces that have created Brexit and a potential U.S president Trump, experts in a panel discussion suggested Tuesday. CIBC economist Andrew Grantham said the trade and investment impact of Brexit — the U.K.’s decision to exit the EU — on Canada’s economy will likely be small, but consequences could be much greater if the anti-globalization sentiment is the start of a broader trend.
“This is potentially a bigger deal if this is a first step into a reversal of globalization,” he told a panel at the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
Though Canada shares similar cultures to the U.S. and U.K., it does not share the protectionist streak displayed by those allies, he said.
“If life is uncertain in two of our principal allies and trading partners, then suddenly Canada is looking pretty good.”
JAIME WATT EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN OF NAVIGATOR LTD.
Canada hasn’t seen the same sort of fiscal tightening, which is increasing inequality and leaving people behind. Nor has it seen a decline in real wage growth or anti-immigration sentiment that is behind a backlash in the U.K. and the U.S., he said.
Further, he added, Canada’s social safety net has healed to ensure no Canadian is left behind by the deeper integration of global economies.
Jaime Watt, executive chairman at public strategy firm Navigator Ltd. said the anti-immigration sentiment spreading in the U.S. and U.K. could actually be beneficial for investment in Canada.
“If life is uncertain in two of our principal allies and trading partners, then suddenly Canada is looking pretty good,” he said.
Polls suggest Canadians understand the benefits of free trade more so than some of our global peers, so we’re not seeing the same kind of protectionist sentiment here, Watt added.
The trade impact of Brexit on Canada will be relatively small while impact on investment while be slightly greater, Grantham said.
He added that Canada might actually be able to negotiate a slightly better trade deal than the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) it forged with the EU because it’s easier to find mutual benefits in bilateral negotiations.
“The sum for all countries involved could be slightly greater.”
The U.K. is in the midst of transferring leadership from outgoing Prime Minister David Cameron, who stepped down after Britons voted last month to leave the 28-member bloc EU, against his advice.
Theresa May is set to become the second female prime minister in British history on Wednesday. The new Conservative leader will have to deal with the fallout, including trying to unite a divided country and negotiating exit terms with the EU.
Bank of England governor Mark Carney has hinted that the central bank might soon deliver more stimulus to rejuvenate the shocked economy when it makes its next announcement on Thursday. The surprise decision to leave the EU rocked currency and stock markets around the world.
Several Canadian bank economists have predicted that global economic uncertainty due to Brexit could lower Canada’s economic growth. That could give the Bank of Canada an impetus to keep interest rates low, which in turn would continue to prop up the hot housing market in Vancouver and Toronto.
The vote could also mean lower returns on Canadian investment in the U.K., especially for Canadians and firms that have exposure there. One of them is the Canada Pension Plan’s investment arm, which has been scooping up infrastructure assets across Britain. According to the CPP Investment Board, about $20 billion, or 7.5 per cent of the plan’s assets, are in the U.K.
Finance Minister Bill Morneau has said Canadian businesses that set up European headquarters in the U.K. to access the continental market might be forced to rethink their strategies.
At least one Canadian company, Canada Life, has suspended its U.K. property funds due to concerns about the price of commercial properties in that country after the vote to leave the EU.
The Brexit vote could have an impact not only on relations with the U.K., one of Canada’s biggest trading partners, but could also have an impact on trade with the rest of Europe, a much bigger market.
Canada and the EU signed CETA, with the EU, of which the U.K. had been one of the biggest proponents. The EU as an entity is the world’s biggest economy.
The deal would remove most tariffs on Canadian goods entering Europe, making Canadian-made goods more attractive.
Canada may have to negotiate a separate deal with the U.K., which could be busy making bilateral deals with individual European countries and others.