Trump’s dark, lonely vision
Twenty-four per cent.
That, according to an authoritative estimate by election experts at the New York Times, is Donald Trump’s chance of beating Hillary Clinton and winning the U.S. presidency in November.
It makes Clinton the strong favourite. But not the overwhelming favourite. As Josh Katz of the Times noted in explaining the intricate calculations that went into the prediction: “Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same probability that an NBA player will miss a free throw.”
In other words, it could well happen. It’s a definite possibility. Sure, it’s just one estimate at one moment in time, a best-guess based on the available data. But given the stakes involved in a Trump presidency, it’s an appalling prospect.
The conventional wisdom was that Trump would use the Republican convention to “pivot” from primary mode to the general election. That he would try to broaden his message from his angry white male base to other voters who might be tempted to his side.
His “I Alone” speech (as in, “I alone can fix it”) closing the convention put paid to that. Once again, the conventional wisdom was flat wrong. Trump has evidently decided that enough voters will respond to his dark, dystopian vision of America to carry him all the way to the White House.
The fact that he has a solid chance of making it means the world must take him very seriously. For Canadians, that includes listening carefully as he continues to attack the institutions most fundamental to our military and economic security.
Last week, he did just that as he tore into both NAFTA, the two-decade-old North American trade deal, and NATO, the bedrock of western stability since the Second World War. He’s taking protectionism and isolationism to a new level.
Trump has been railing against NAFTA and every other trade deal for months. He told the New York Times he would pull out “in a split second” if Washington can’t get a much better deal from Mexico and Canada.
Some jaded analysts think it’s mostly bluster. They argue a President Trump either wouldn’t carry through or would be restrained by a Congress and bureaucracy keenly aware of the benefits of an open economy.
That’s a bad bet. If Trump has shown anything, it’s that he has all the subtlety of a sledgehammer and an uncanny ability to tap into a genuine anger among those who’ve been beaten down by the effects of trade and globalization. If he manages to win with that kind of mandate he will have tremendous power to take action, at least at the beginning. His supporters will demand it.
NAFTA disrupted much of the Canadian economy, as well. But we’ve already absorbed the effects of that transition and made a go of it. A Trump administration demanding unilateral changes to benefit American workers and industries can’t be good for Canada.
And there is no reason to think that just because Trump insists that he “loves Canada,” he’ll go easy on us. He doesn’t hurl abuse our way (unlike, for example, his insults about “rapists” from Mexico) but when he calls for steep new tariffs on cars made outside the U.S., we should be worried.
Then there’s NATO. There’s no organization as basic to the security of the West as the 67-year-old military alliance. Every U.S. president, of both parties, has understood and supported its mission. Canada has been a staunch member since the beginning, and as recently as a few weeks ago committed to taking part in a NATO force in the Baltic states to counter potential Russian aggression.
Yet Trump last week called its fundamental premise — that an attack on one is an attack on all — into question. Asked whether he would come to the aid of Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania if Putin’s Russia sent in troops, he said it would depend on whether they had “paid their bills” to NATO.
It may be that Trump simply doesn’t understand the nature of a treaty organization. Or that he’s flat-out ignorant about NATO itself. But there has been no stronger signal that when he talks about putting “America First,” he really means it — regardless of its effect on long-standing alliances and friendships. It’s hard to believe that would not spill over into every aspect of Washington’s dealings with its allies and neighbours, let alone its enemies.
There’s more, of course. Trump says he won’t build a wall along America’s northern frontier, but his obsession with terrorism would likely lead to a thickening of the U.S.-Canadian border. And his declaration that he would not push American democratic values abroad implies a retreat from humanitarian action and pressure on dictators to have a minimum respect for human rights.
None of this is good, and none of it is in Canada’s interests. And coming from a man with a one-in-four chance of reaching the White House, it’s cause for deep concern.