Saunders should consider a short-term deal
One would think that with all that unexpected success, which has carried into this season, that Rogers could afford whatever payroll it needed next season. Let’s look at numbers.
There are nine Jays players with guaranteed contracts for 2017 at a combined cost of $104.1 million — shortstop Troy Tulowitzki ($20M), catcher Russell Martin ($20M), third baseman Josh Donaldson ($17M), outfielder Melvin Upton, Jr. ($16.45M paid by the Padres), first baseman Justin Smoak ($4.1M), and pitchers Marco Estrada ($14M), J.A. Happ ($13M), Francisco Liriano ($13M) and Jason Grilli ($3M club option). In addition, there are just five players that are arbitrationeligible, highlighted by Marcus Stroman and Darwin Barney (at about $5 million combined). Then you can add seven significant players who will be under club control, due to of lack of service time: pitchers Aaron Sanchez, Roberto Osuna and Joe Biagini, infielders Devon Travis and Ryan Goins, and outfielders Kevin Pillar and Dalton Pompey. The salary of those seven players will be around $11 million.
With nine guaranteed Jays, two arbitration-eligible players and seven more under team control, the Jays have 18 contracts at about $120 million. Assuming the 2017 openingday payroll is the same, that leaves $17 million for seven more players. If president Mark Shapiro is allowed a10-per-cent boost to $151 million, he will have $31 million to spend for the final seven players. Even then, there would not be room for all of Bautista, Encarnacion and Saunders. Not even close.
What would I do if I was the Jays’ general manager?
Make a qualifying offer, then at- tempt to sign Encarnacion at a fair market price. Make a qualifying offer to Bautista and let him test the market. If he signs elsewhere, you would be compensated with a high draft pick in June. Make Saunders understand that he can increase his free-agent value by agreeing to a reasonable two-year contract with the Jays — because he missed most of 2015 with a knee injury and there are health questions — and testing the market with more credentials and for a longer term when he is 32.
As for the others, you can’t even consider making a qualifying offer (around $18 million) to any of those five free agents. The 41-year-old Dickey will likely end up signing for a couple of seasons with a National League team to play out his career like any aging knuckleballer should.
Even if the Jays were, in fact, able to land Encarnacion for around $21M in 2017 and Saunders for $10M, that would bring the total team payroll to about $151-million. It seems evident that they won’t bring back all three free-agent stars. There wouldn’t be room for Bautista.
Sure, Rogers could afford to bring everyone back and, sure, they must realize that winning is the primary factor that has sent the fan support into the stratosphere. But even if they are able to sign all three, are they ready and willing?
Not likely.