Can Republicans fire Trump? Probably not
‘No precedent’ and vague rules make it hard to replace nominee after convention
We are in the midst of yet another of Donald Trump’s self-inflicted spirals of terrible news.
And with prominent Republicans saying they will back Hillary Clinton and others announcing this week that they won’t endorse Trump, there has been yet another round of speculation about how the party could get rid of him.
But it almost certainly can’t. And even if it could, it probably wouldn’t be worth the effort. Here’s why.
Republicans are stuck with him Under Republican Party rules, Trump is the only one who can take himself out of the race at this point. The only provision that exists, Rule 9, was written to apply only in the event of a candidate’s death or refusal to run. Then the 168-member Republican National Committee — a body made up of the men and women from each of the 50 states, the District of Columbia and five territories — would be able to name a new nominee by a majority vote. Each state and jurisdiction is given the same number of votes as delegates it has to the national convention, so the system favours larger Republican-dominated states. There is, however, some air in the rule — which actually spells out how to fill a vacancy “by reason of death, declination or otherwise” — that an enterprising lawyer could try to exploit. But arguing that Trump’s nomination can be rescinded by second-guessing party bosses over the word “otherwise” seems highly improbable.
Replacing him would be a mess Even if Trump withdrew as the nominee, replacing him after the convention is uncharted and potentially messy territory. “The rules are vague, and there is no precedent,” said Benjamin L. Ginsberg, a lawyer with Jones Day who has worked on multiple Republican presidential campaigns. Naming someone would be hard enough. Finding a suitable alternative was always the problem with the “Never Trump” movement. No matter how distasteful party leaders found him, they could never agree on anyone else. Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana, Trump’s running mate, would seem to have a strong claim to make because he is the only other Republican formally nominated by his party.
But what if others, rivals of Trump from the primaries like Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, decided they deserved a shot? A new candidate would almost certainly not be chosen by acclamation. And determining who and how many are eligible would be a huge fight — one the Republican National Committee would have to resolve before it could ultimately vote.
Time is running out Given that the process of replacing the Republican nominee would probably not go smoothly or quickly — what has for Republicans this year? — there would be very little time left for other essential aspects of a presidential campaign. One of the issues is ballot access. Each state has its own set of rules and deadlines for getting on the ballot, which Trump and Pence have done. Getting their names off and the names of the new presidential and vice-presidential candidates on would be a logistical and legal headache. Some states, including important battleground ones like Iowa, start voting next month. Legal and logistical complications aside, how would a candidate run a campaign under such a compressed timeline? One thing is for sure: He or she would almost certainly not have the name recognition Trump has. Convincing the country’s voters that they should elect you president is an undertaking that requires months, not weeks.