THE UPSIDE OF TRUMP (REALLY)
His campaign has veered between fear and farce. But it has also revealed awkward truths about America.
All hail, Donald Trump!
I come to praise Trump, not to bury him. After all, not everything this billionaire buffoon says is bonkers.
As this insane U.S. presidential campaign enters the home stretch, it is easy to forget that, for the first time, two radical visions are being put to American voters for consideration.
One calls for a rethinking of America’s role in the world. It describes a 21st century where American influence and power are in decline, requiring less military intervention and no “nation-building” beyond U.S. borders.
The other condemns the impact of free trade and globalization. Focusing on the many Americans who are still reeling from the financial crisis of 2008, it argues that international trade deals are costing Americans more jobs than they create and that “globalization” is a ruse to enable the rich to get richer.
Ironically, it is the Republican presidential nominee who is pushing both of these visions — however incoherently — even though they contradict decades of once rock-solid Republican ideology.
We can all be excused if these crucial issues often don’t cut through the noise and nonsense of this campaign. As this week’s presidential debate revealed, Trump himself doesn’t quite understand the complexities of public policy.
And like a hummingbird flitting from flower to flower at the slightest scent, he seems incapable of staying “on message.” Like this week’s quarrel over why he called a Miss Universe winner “Miss Piggy,” or his latest lies about his racist “birther” comments about Barack Obama, or his 51attempts to interrupt Hillary Clinton during Monday’s debate or his apparent pride at paying either no or very little taxes. The list truly is endless.
However, in the wacky world of Donald Trump, there can sometimes be an “upside” when we wish upon a star. After decades of self-absorbed U.S. complacency, it is refreshing that his presence in the race means that some of the basic assumptions of American foreign and economic policy are finally being challenged — and debated.
The 20th century was clearly America’s century but it is unimaginable that this 21st century will be the same. It may not be China’s century, as many historians suggest, but American influence and dominance will decline. The bizarre age of “American exceptionalism” — whatever that really was — will also fade. An age of multilateralism is inevitable.
This will require an immense adjustment by America’s political elites, and that uncertainty has surfaced in this campaign.
If we examine opinion polls, it is fair to conclude that the American public, as a whole, seems far more realistic than their leaders about the new limits to American power.
The obvious challenge now is how this new framework will evolve.
On the issue of international trade, this is becoming a crucial pocketbook issue. In spite of the ridicule heaped on those activists who deplored income inequality — the “1 per cent” versus the “99 per cent” — Americans increasingly believe they are being screwed by their corporate elites.
That helps explain not only the popularity of Trump, but also the equally amazing performance of Bernie Sanders in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
A Harvard-Politico poll of Republican voters released this week indicated that an overwhelming majority are repudiating their party’s traditional support for free trade.
During the debate, most analysts felt that Trump won the first 20 minutes when free trade was the dominant issue. After that, Trump faded into incoherence and apparent exhaustion. Overall, it was clearly a Clinton rout.
But there will be opportunities in the remaining five weeks of the campaign for Trump to recover, including the next two presidential debates.
I still believe, as I have from the beginning, that Clinton will win this election, probably decisively. In spite of her uneasy relationship with the American people, the Democratic front bench supporting her — including Obama, Michelle Obama, Sanders, Bill Clinton and Joe Biden — is far more powerful than Trump’s fractious Republican crowd. And, let’s face it, Trump would be a disaster.
But if she wins the election, Clinton will only succeed as president if she learns from this campaign.
In the dead of night when she is alone, she should reflect on why Trump — in spite of his many weaknesses — will still win more than 40 per cent of the American vote. Tony Burman is former head of Al Jazeera English and CBC News. Reach him @TonyBurman or at tony.burman@gmail.com.
His campaign is incoherent, but he holds a revealing mirror