Will Jays meet their match in Cleveland?
The Blue Jays, winners of six straight games — including all four in the postseason — will open the American League Championship Series on Friday night in Cleveland against the AL Central champs, who are also undefeated in these playoffs and have also won six straight.
Here are five key matchups to look for in what figures to be a long series:
MARCO ESTRADA VS. COREY KLUBER
Although he may not garner the spotlight of a marquee ace, Estrada has been one of baseball’s best pitchers the last two seasons. Since 2015, no American League starter has held opposing hitters to a lower batting average than the Jays’ finesse right-hander, who will get the nod in Game 1. He outpitched Rangers ace Cole Hamels in the opening game of the division series and he will be called upon to do the same against Cleveland’s top arm, Kluber, who won the 2014 AL Cy Young and should be in the running again this year. Kluber leads what was arguably the top rotation in baseball before injuries to Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, the No. 2 and No. 3 starters. Now, if you had to name the top five starting pitchers in this series it would probably start with Kluber with the entire Jays’ rotation filling in the next four spots. Suffice to say, if Estrada can go toe-to-toe with Cleveland’s ace it will put the Jays in a very good position.
RUSSELL MARTIN VS. RAJAI DAVIS
Cleveland was the best baserunning team in the American League this season and it was a key weapon in sweeping the Boston Red Sox. As Jays fans will remember from Davis’s time in Toronto, the whole park knows when the speedy outfielder is going to steal and yet he still usually gets away with it. Davis, who turns 36 next week, led the AL in stolen bases this year (43) and Cleveland swiped more bags than any AL team. Jays catcher Russell Martin has been adept at controlling the running game — he led all AL backstops by throwing out 44 per cent of attempted base stealers last season — but he was well below the league average this year at just 15 per cent. The responsibility for that drop-off is shared with the pitching staff, but clearly the Jays haven’t controlled the running game very well this season. That could be a major factor in the series.
HEART OF THE TORONTO ORDER VS. ANDREW MILLER
Cleveland manager Terry Francona delighted baseball progressives with how he deployed his bullpen in the division series against Boston, particularly with his aggressive use of Miller, a versatile lefty who is among the best relievers in baseball. Miller pitched two innings in each of Games 1 and 3 and Francona will not hesitate to go to him early in a game to snuff out a rally. If the Jays are trailing, the meat of their order — Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and Troy Tulowitzki — is likely going to have to tangle with Miller, who has held that quartet to three hits in 16 plate appearances since 2012. The biggest moments in this series could very well turn in these middle-relief battles.
BRETT CECIL AND JASON GRILLI VS. CLEVELAND’S SWITCH HITTERS
The Jays’ bullpen has outperformed expectations in the post-season thus far, allowing just two earned runs in 14 innings. Much of the credit is due to closer Roberto Osuna, who has been nearly perfect and upon whom manager John Gibbons has leaned heavily. But the Jays don’t have a middle reliever like Miller and Gib- bons will have a tough time playing the matchups against a Cleveland lineup loaded with switch-hitters. Grilli, a right-hander, and Cecil, a lefty, are the Jays’ primary relief options for the seventh and eighth innings, but both have struggled against opposite-handed hitters this year. Cecil has allowed a .673 onbase-plus-slugging percentage to lefties, compared to a .799 mark against righties. Grilli, meanwhile, has even more dramatic splits. He held righties to a .613 OPS this year, while lefties hit him to the tune of a .877 mark. Grilli has walked lefties at twice the rate of righties, while allowing home runs at three times his rate to righties. Cleveland will have at least three switch-hitters in their starting lineup (Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez) and occasionally four (Coco Crisp), so it will be tough for Gibbons to protect Cecil and Grilli from their weaker sides.
JOHN GIBBONS VS. TERRY FRANCONA
Francona, who won two World Series with the Red Sox, has the edge over Gibbons in terms of playoff experience. Gibbons, however, outwitted both Baltimore’s Buck Showalter and Texas’s Jeff Banister to get to this point, so he’s no slouch. For the most part, the players themselves will decide the series, but how each manager exploits their advantages or their opponent’s weaknesses, however marginal, could play a pivotal role in the outcome of a game. With the stakes this high their decisions will no doubt be under a microscope.