THE CASE FOR (AND AGAINST) WAR
Nuclear conflict between Russia and the United States is once again a worry — but should it be?
In case your Donald Trump addiction has fogged up your glasses, there are other things happening in the world these days you might want to think about.
For example, did you miss the news about the looming nuclear war between Russia and the United States?
Yes, the drumbeats of war seem to be growing louder. In recent days, there have been ominous warnings from American military analysts, Russian TV commentators and political leaders past and present.
Not since the darkest days of the Cold War, we are being told, have the dangers of a catastrophic conflict between Russia and the West been so genuine.
Last Sunday on Russian television, Dmitry Kiselyov, an influential current affairs host, warned that U.S. military action against the Russian-backed Syrian regime could provoke a world war: “Offensive behaviour toward Russia has a nuclear dimension.”
This week, Germany’s foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, wrote that today’s global situation is “more dangerous” than the Cold War. And former Soviet leader and Nobel winner Mikhail Gorbachev warned that “the world has a reached a dangerous point” because of the deepening Russia-U.S. clash over Syria.
More than anyone, Russian President Vladimir Putin was at the centre of these recent tensions. In response to U.S. policy in Syria, Putin said Russia would withdraw from an agreement to destroy stocks of weapons-grade plutonium. Russia also rattled the nerves of its neighbours by deploying nuclear-capable missiles to the edge of NATO territory in Europe.
Finally, Putin abruptly cancelled a state visit to France that was scheduled for next week. He was angry with French President François Hollande, who had criticized Russia for possible war crimes in Syria.
In a world that often seems spiralling out of control, it would be foolish not to take these tensions seriously. After all, as our political leaders consistently show us, it is far easier to make war than it is to make peace.
But wars don’t just happen. They are allowed to happen because it serves the interests of many people.
Here are three dimensions to this unfolding drama that we shouldn’t lose sight of: Russia is not the Soviet Union and never will be Putin may strut, may preen and may bluster — and, like the KGB operative he once was, he is skilled at manipulating the optics of a situation. But like Trump, his comrade-in-arms in the U.S., Putin is a phoney. When all is said and done, he doesn’t have the economic or military firepower to deliver on his threats. Compared with the Soviet Union, Russia’s economy is strikingly weak and integrated with the West. If tensions ever escalated to the point of actual war, Russia would be annihilated. And Putin, above all, knows that. Let’s watch our leaders as closely as we watch Putin Russia’s sabre-rattling is unnerving the West. It is messing with the heads of American and European politicians, military leaders and opinion-makers. In response, NATO and its member states, led by the U.S., are embarking on their own military buildup, particularly in countries neighbouring Russia. They are using the Russian threat, exaggerated as it is, as a pretext for challenging Russia in its own backyard. That’s a recipe for disaster. Putin isn’t the only threat here: Our leaders also need to be watched. Beware of those who profit from war Even though Trump will likely crash and burn on election day, Nov. 8, the poisoned American political system will still be with us. And it’s a system increasingly corrupted by money. Regardless of who resides in the White House, there will be many Republican members, perhaps a majority, whose political success is tied to America’s war machine. This is reflected in military bases and military jobs that reside in their districts. Even though the Pentagon itself admits that the American military is bloated and over-resourced, it is in the interests of these politicians to keep this war machine growing.
There is little likelihood that tensions between Russia and the U.S. will ease before the election of a new president. And assuming that it is Hillary Clinton, there will still be a long road back before relations become normal again. After all, Putin is said to loathe Clinton even more than Barack Obama. How promising is that? Tony Burman is former head of Al Jazeera English and CBC News. Reach him @TonyBurman or at tony.burman@gmail.com.