The winds of chump change
Mindful of shifting political winds, the Liberals recently declared renewable energy — new wind and solar — will not be renewed in Ontario for the foreseeable future.
So said the government, last month, in a closely watched announcement aimed at rising electricity bills and declining voter support.
Six months ago, it was a different story. Back then, the Liberals proclaimed full speed ahead for new wind turbines and solar panels.
A now-forgotten April 6 news release touted a new round of big green energy projects: “The province will continue to ensure renewable energy procurement . . . (so that) Ontario remains a global leader in clean energy development.”
What changed from April to September? Why did the government announce a major new push in green energy only to cancel it a half-year later?
According to the Liberals, changing economic currents have depressed demand for electricity. If you have excess capacity, why build more?
Hard to argue with that conclusion. But also impossible not to ask why it took the government so long to figure it out.
Now, in October, the Liberals are starting the process all over again. The government has quietly announced fresh consultations for a new Long-Term Energy Plan to bring more clarity over the next two decades.
The previous long-term plan, released in 2013, is already outdated given the government’s on-again off-again approach to renewables. But electricity predictability has been the bane of provincial governments of all stripes for decades.
Energy visions always have blind spots. And those miscalculations have always been a boon for opposition parties (and the media) who, with the benefit of hindsight, can pounce on the discrepancies. But critics are also prone to taking pot shots at one another.
Opponents of wind and solar cheered last month’s freeze and promptly pointed to nuclear energy as the better investment. By contrast, environmentalists condemned the government for putting green energy on hold, arguing that it’s a safer bet compared to nuclear cost overruns and radioactive waste.
The politics of power generation encourages everyone to cast everything as black and white — obscuring the reality of electricity complexity. Predicting the future of energy demand is like forecasting interest rates or stock market indexes — it’s not that simple.
Yet all three parties play the game of simplistic solutions. The opposition has long targeted the provincial sales tax on hydro bills; the Liberals stole that idea last month. The Tories have long condemned wind and solar; belatedly, the government acted.
Now what? Unfortunately for the politicians, the low-hanging fruit has been harvested from those hightension transmission lines — and it doesn’t amount to much.
Putting future renewables on hold will save about $2.45 a month from the average electricity bill — or about the price of a cup of coffee every four weeks — worth doing, but not worth a lot. Removing sales taxes from electricity bills is just a grand shell game, using taxpayer revenue to subsidize ratepayer costs.
Yes, there is much amiss with energy planning in Ontario. Ratepayers will pay a heavy price for the Liberals acquiescing to opposition pressure by cancelling gas-fired power plants amid NIMBYism in Mississauga and Oakville. We overpaid for wind and solar with extravagant subsidies, while ignoring the mismatch that plagues our province — the wind doesn’t blow when we need it, and blows when we don’t.
And we paid a heavy price for being ahead of the curve in phasing out coal-fired power plants.
But let’s be clear here — most Ontarians believed it was a price worth paying.
Some critics cling to the notion that we should somehow restart those old decommissioned coal facilities, travelling back in time to a world before global warming. Others want to revisit the decisions to refurbish our nuclear reactors to provide reliable base load power.
The good news about wind and solar is that, thanks to a shorter planning horizon, you can turn on a dime and save big bucks with a freeze.
By contrast, any notion of restarting coal generation, or nuking our nuclear reactors, is pointless at this point.
The electricity train has left the station, and it won’t be powered by a coal-fired locomotive. Beware politicians who blithely promise you cheaper rates — you may find they’re taking you for a ride. Martin Regg Cohn’s political column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. mcohn@thestar.ca, Twitter: @reggcohn