Viewership numbers not the only way to measure TV success
Service tracks TV ratings based on their emotional impact, by monitoring reactions on social media
Calling a win in the fall TV wars has never been more difficult. In addition to live ratings and delayed viewership on PVRs and online, social-media chatter can save or slay a new show.
“Traditionally, we’ve done a good job of counting,” says Jared Feldman, the CEO of Canvs, a New Yorkbased social-media monitoring service.
“Canvs is trying to focus on how the masses feel about things.”
By analyzing mentions on Twitter and Facebook, as well as YouTube comments, Canvs breaks down the kind of emotional responses viewers have to a show, with reactions as abstract as “WTF,” “ROFL” or a weeping cat-face emoji sorted into categories such as “crazy,” “funny” or “cried.” New ways to measure TV triumphs have become increasingly more crucial as fewer people, especially in coveted younger demographics, are watching episodes live.
Last year, Scream Queens was a live-ratings dud — but it was also the mostdiscussed show on social media, prompting Fox to renew it for a second season.
The Ryan Murphy horror anthology is one example of how broadcasters’ best programming advisers just might be their newsfeeds.
“Last year, there were about a billion tweets just about live television and no one knows what they said,” Feldman says.
Meanwhile, he says, “the media industry spent nine billion dollars (in market research). There’s just this big gap.”
Canvs already provides 75 per cent of American TV networks, including Fox, Showtime and HBO, with data about how viewers are emotionally responding to programming, though no Canadian networks have yet subscribed to the service.
We asked Feldman to analyze the emotional responses to Canada’s top five new programs that bowed during the premiere-heavy week of Sept. 19 through 25, as ranked by Numeris, all of which have been picked up for full seasons. He explains why “hate” is a good thing, “cried” is a great thing, and why Kevin James’ hit sitcom might not last. Bull (Tuesdays at 9 p.m., Global) Premiere viewership in Canada: 2,801,000 Emotional reactions to series premiere: 3,161 tweets that expressed emotion Top five emotions expressed: Love (51.3%), Good (17.4%), Excited (13.4%), Dislike (8.7%), Interesting (5.1%)
The new legal procedural was the top-rated new show in Canada during the third week of September, but generated only a seventh of the emotional reactions on Twitter that This is Us did.
“An emotional audience is more valuable from an advertising standpoint,” Feldman says.
“Emotional audiences have higher ad recall and higher purchase intent for those advertisements. If you are a content creator, is it better to have a larger audience that’s not as emotionally engaged or a smaller audience that is more passionate? There is no right answer to that, but that is the dimension that we are able to introduce here.” Designated Survivor (Wednesdays at 10 p.m., CTV) Premiere viewership in Canada: 2,697,000 Emotional reactions to series premiere: 11,437 tweets that expressed emotion Top five emotions expressed: Love (42.5%), Good (21.4%), Excited (14.3%), Dislike (10.5%), Crazy (6%)
The Toronto-filmed Kiefer Sutherland thriller about a cabinet minister thrust into the U.S. presidency in the wake of an attack on Washington benefits from its sharp plot twists. Feldman lists the three most crucial emotional responses to a drama as “love,” “crazy” (“this exacerbation, this WTF, this OMG, sort of emotional response,” he explains) and “hate,” with the latter emotion ranking as “the single biggest indication of viewership.”
The series performed well in each of these categories, though “dislike” shows a softer negative response to the still unfolding conspiracy-focused plot than outright “hate.” MacGyver (Fridays at 8 p.m., Global) Premiere viewership in Canada: 2,163,000 Emotional reactions to series premiere: 3,590 tweets that expressed emotion Top five emotions expressed: Love (42.8%), Good (17.9%), Excited (13.3%), Dislike (9.3%), Hate (8.3%)
While “hate”-fuelled responses are crucial drivers for dramas, that’s only if viewers are responding to the plot or characters. The reboot of the ’80s action series MacGyver started strong, but has been grasping to maintain its position in subsequent weeks.
“If you are seeing a decline in viewership for MacGyver, what is most likely true is that ‘negative’ emotion is not about the substance, but may be about the show overall,” Feldman says. This is Us (Tuesday at 9 p.m., CTV) Premiere viewership in Canada: 1,755,000 Emotional reactions to series premiere: 23,021 tweets that expressed emotion Top five emotions expressed: Love (48.8%), Good (14.2%), Excited (12.8%), Crazy (6.7%), Dislike (6.1%)
Not only did the breakout family drama have the highest number of emotional reactions, but 50.8 per cent of all tweets expressed an emotional response.
“To have things like ‘cried’ (3.6 per cent of responses) and ‘beautiful’ (4 per cent) as top emotions is really powerful,” Feldman says.
“To have an over 50 per cent reaction rate is stellar. More typically it is in the 35 to 40 per cent range. Fifty per cent from an advertiser standpoint is valuable because the reaction rate is the single biggest correla- tion to how closely the audience is paying attention.” Kevin Can Wait (Mondays at 8:30 p.m., Global) Premiere viewership in Canada: 1,599,000 Emotional reactions to series premiere: 2,315 tweets that expressed emotion Top five emotions expressed: Love (39.1%), Excited (19.1%), Funny (15.2%), Good (14.0%), Hate (10.6%)
While the Kevin James sitcom has had good ratings, Feldman warns a strong “hate” response for a comedy doesn’t usually signal success.
“In comedy the emotion that you want to look for is ‘love’ and ‘beautiful,’ ” he says. “The fact that ‘hate’ is so high is probably not a good sign for that show, to be frank.”