SIX QUESTIONS FOR THE NEW CAMPAIGN
With the Raptors about to tip off the 2016-17 season Wednesday at home vs. Detroit, we ask our panel of experts six pressing questions:
What’s to stop the Raptors from winning the Eastern Conference (other than LeBron James)?
Bruce Arthur: I guess LeBron James’s teammates is not what you are looking for here, right? Well, Indiana and Boston are gonna be better. Orlando, too, though weird-better. A lot depends on whether the Raptors trade for a power forward. It’s not impossible to imagine Miami parting ways with the medically worrying Chris Bosh, and Bosh, after getting a clean and unworrisome bill of health, coming home. Sadly, he will never be someone that you can’t worry about, and they’d never do it.
Dave Feschuk: Bad matchups can stop any would-be deep run. Don’t forget that the Raptors would have likely been first-round casualties last spring if Frank Vogel, the since-fired coach of the Pacers, didn’t make the questionable rotation moves that greatly helped the Raptors to sneak through. So there’s Paul George. And the improved Celtics. And plain old bad luck. Chris O’Leary: A team like Boston. If the chemistry is there, the Celtics seem very capable of making up the eight wins that separated them from the Raptors last year. Jimmy Butler, Dwyane Wade, Rajon Rondo and the Bulls could make a run this season and the Knicks are improved but consumed by heavier things, like Derrick Rose’s ongoing sexual assault trial. Doug Smith: Now that the obvious one’s off the table, it probably all comes down to health because they are as talented as any team in the conference. And that’s health right from the get-go, any extended absence of a key player in the regular season could cost them seeding when the playoffs roll around (avoiding the Cavaliers until the final is the most astute thing); and making sure no one tweaks an ankle in Game 3 or 4 of the first or second round of the playoffs is of paramount importance. Oh, and LeBron James. (I had to).
Who’s the Raptors backup centre?
Arthur: It could finally be Bébé! It could be rookie Jakob Poeltl, who has soft hands, quick feet and room to add muscle. But at times it could be, like, Patrick Patterson. God help Toronto if Jonas Valanciunas gets hurt again, is what I’m saying here.
Feschuk: They need to hope it’s Lucas Nogueira, the seven-footer who at age 24 is coming to a point in an NBA career where a key competitive step — from curiosity to contributor — needs to be taken. Jared Sullinger was a great pickup, but given Patrick Patterson’s seeming aversion to prospering as a starter, Sullinger’s best fit might be alongside Jonas Valanciunas, not behind him.
O’Leary: The answer isn’t there yet, but you can bet that he’ll be young. With Bismack Biyombo taking a $72-million payday from the Orlando Magic, Dwane Casey will need one of his young bigs to come in and play key minutes. Poeltl will play, but given the learning curve that rookies face and Casey’s traditional apprehension to drop heavy minutes on them, Nogueira stands to get a long look at the job Biyombo did so well in his one year with the Raptors.
Smith: I don’t know that there will be one in the traditional sense. I can see them running a four-man frontcourt of Valanciunas, Jared Sullinger, Patrick Patterson and, at times, DeMarre Carroll as the league goes to smaller “big” men. Besides, there aren’t an awful lot of enticing options otherwise. You’d like to think that at some point Nogueira stays healthy and dedicated enough to provide at least a few minutes a night but he’s never shown that ability on a consistent level. Poeltl? An interesting rookie who’d get pushed around tremendously.
Will Terrence Ross finally emerge as a reliable player?
Arthur: On some nights, yes. On some nights, no. Look, maybe if all the shots weren’t going to, or flowing from, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, Ross would be more locked in on a nightly basis, instead of running sprints and wondering about his dinner reservations. But maybe not. We are who we are, you know? Like the weather. Like Terry.
Feschuk: This feels like it’s destined to become an annual question, and the obvious answer is not likely. But Masai Ujiri and Casey have shown nothing but contractual generosity and patience with Ross.
Ross’s fifth year in the league — when the Raptors are running out of areas for internal improvement — would be a good time for their bet to pay off.
O’Leary: Here’s a confidence-inducing answer: maybe. This is the time of year when it’s easy to think that the player you’ve been waiting for has arrived. Ross has said and done the right things in the preseason, while putting together a few strong games. Ross has won the odd sprint in his career. This year’s about the marathon. And if that goes well, maybe it’s about getting traded.
Smith: This is like guessing next week’s lottery numbers and if I could do that, I wouldn’t be scratching my head trying to figure out if he’ll finally figure it out on a nightly basis, I’d be on my island. That being said, from what we’ve seen in the pre-season and from what coaches and teammates say privately, there’s a better chance of that happening today than ever before. So, short answer: Yes, he will. And I’ll retract this after his first scoreless week of the season.
DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry: all-stars again?
Arthur: Lowry, for sure. He’s in a contract year and here’s betting he spent the summer running those sand dunes in Vegas and watching his diet and doing Pilates that make grown men weep. DeMar? He could get bumped by Giannis Antetokounmpo, or even if things get crazy, Bradley Beal. The upside: The East is not as guard-rich, or indeed talentrich, as the West.
Feschuk: It’s a contract year for Lowry. His last one of those sparked his breakthrough 2013-14 campaign. So he’s got every incentive to make this another in a line of all-star-worthy seasons. And hey, a summer with the U.S. Olympic team — something both he and DeRozan experienced in Rio — has had a way of raising one’s game. The only concern is the overall workload both Lowry and DeRozan have been subjected to after Rio and a deep playoff run. The red flag of injury risk seems to be raised here.
O’Leary: Ask Casey or Ujiri about the tandem of DeRozan and Lowry and either will tell you the team goes as they go. That won’t change this season. DeRozan is 27, Lowry 30 and they’re both in their prime. Knock on wood as you read this, for safety’s sake, but the only thing that stands to disrupt the all-star streak of the league’s top bromance is injury.
Smith: Sure, why not? They will once again be the focal points of a very good team, they have cemented their reputations as a couple of very good players and are coming off a summer where they proved they belonged with the very best in the NBA. Some of it is, of course, predicated on team success — especially when you’re looking at two teammates making the team — but there’s no reason to think the Raptors won’t be among the conference elite in February.
Other than Cleveland, who should the Raptors be most worried about?
Arthur: Golden State! Everyone should worry about Golden State. But really, the Raptors should worry about the Raptors. They lost Biyombo, still have a hole at power forward, still haven’t maxed out Valanciunas, and they’ll need to be better. ESPN’s Zach Lowe thinks San Antonio could shop LaMarcus Aldridge; Ujiri recruited him heavily when he was a free agent and has a bunch of young pieces lying around, and Aldridge was intrigued by the idea of Toronto. Hmm.
Feschuk: Clearly not Rose’s alleged “superteam” in New York. The Celtics have all the pieces to make the kind of year-over-year jump the Raptors have patented these past few seasons. Ever-improving Boston won 48 last year. The possibly maxed-out Raptors won 56. In other words, the guys in green are gaining. The question is: Even if Al Horford was a great acquisition, do they shoot it well enough?
O’Leary: Worry might be a strong word, but there are a lot of fringe teams in the East and one or two could make a run up the standings this year. Paul George and the Pacers took the Raptors to the limit in the first round last year and have a retooled coaching staff and roster around him. Atlanta’s frontcourt is a Dwight Howard career-defining turn away from being great (wait and see on that one) and Orlando has a mishmash roster that could be pretty good or pretty bad. Milwaukee, Charlotte, Washington and Detroit may not make huge moves, but are in interesting spots.
Smith: Boston has become the flavour of the month, to be sure. The Celtics were a pretty good team of bits and adding a stud like Horford — if he can stay healthy and still be a stud — has to make them more dangerous. I think a second-round Raptors-Celtics playoff series would be delightful, and tough. The rest of the conference? It’ll be interesting to see if Indiana’s plan to play at some meteoric pace translates to the postseason. If it does, they could be troublesome.
Your predicted finish?
Arthur: 51-31, Atlantic Division champions, second-round loss to, like, Indiana.
Feschuk: After so many years of magical progression, this has many of the makings of a fallback year in Toronto. Carroll’s healthy emergence could help stop such a dip, as could great work from Sullinger and Nogueira and Norman Powell. Mark them down for 50 wins and a second-place finish in the Atlantic.
O’Leary: There’s a lot that has to go right for the Raptors to duplicate their 56-win season. They need health, they need the same good fortune they had at times last year and they’ll have a much younger team than a year ago to get everything to come together seamlessly. The East should be tougher than it was a year ago, when it narrowed the gap with the West on teams not named the Warriors or Spurs. A second- or third-place finish is realistic and anything less than home-court advantage in the playoffs would be underachieving. 50-32.
Smith: I know everyone’s crowing about how much better the East got but is that really true? Some teams would appear to be stronger but others appear to have taken a step back from last year and, overall, it kind of balances out. That said, the stars aligned almost perfectly for Toronto last year and it’s hard to imagine that happening again. Let’s go with 52 wins and another division title. The other seven East playoff teams? Cleveland, Boston, Indiana, Detroit, Atlanta, Washington and Charlotte, in no particular order.