Believe it or not, Trump could win
The world didn’t need a reminder but it got one anyway. The U.S. election is remarkably close. Donald Trump could still become America’s next president.
This is the same Donald Trump who has been accused of sexual impropriety by 12 women. It is the same Donald Trump routinely called a serial liar by the media. It is the same bloviating tycoon who brags about his skill at deal-making and his ability to avoid taxes. And, yes, he could win in spite of this. An ABC-Washington Post poll released Tuesday shows Republican Trump in a statistical tie with his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton.
Other polls show Clinton’s lead narrowing in swing states such as Colorado. In the two key battleground states of Florida and North Carolina, the contenders are neck and neck.
The proximate cause of all of this is, of course, the FBI’s decision to reopen the Clinton email investigation.
Clinton had thought she was free of this particular albatross, an inquiry into whether, during her time as secretary of state, she had broken the law by using her personal computer server to handle delicate — and in some cases confidential — government emails.
But the gods have a malevolent sense of humour. The FBI announced Friday it had officially reopened the inquiry after finding more emails on a computer used by alleged sexter Anthony Weiner, the estranged husband of a top Clinton aide.
Weiner, a former Democratic Congressman famous for sharing pictures of his crotch online, is under police investigation for allegedly sending suggestive texts to a 15-year-old girl.
But even before the Weiner connection emerged, Clinton’s lead in the polls was softening. It seems that for a good chunk of wavering Americans, Trump’s many faults, including his reprehensible approach to women, are not reason enough to vote for Clinton.
She really is unpopular — almost as unpopular as Trump.
But can he beat her? The experts tend to say the odds are against him.
Writing in the New York Times, polling whiz Nate Cohn says it would take a “perfect storm” to give Trump the presidency — one that included the demoralization of Democrats, a poor turnout by Clinton-friendly black and Latino voters and a decision by anti-Trump Republicans to swallow their distaste for their party’s candidate and return to the fold. But two points should be made here. First, the experts are often wrong. Canadians will remember the sweeping election victories of Christy Clark in British Columbia and Alison Redford in Alberta that the pollsters failed to predict.
In the U.S., the experts famously failed to anticipate Trump’s win in the Republican nomination battle,
Second, people don’t always tell pollsters the truth, particularly if they are embarrassed by their political choices.
This phenomenon could be in play here. Fanatic Trump backers are proud to pledge their allegiance to the New York developer. But less-committed supporters see him as a deeply flawed candidate whose only saving grace is that he is the lesser of two evils.
This latter group may be shy about admitting their preference.
Certainly, the resurrection of the email scandal has thrown the Clinton campaign into a tizzy.
Senior Democrats are accusing FBI director James Comey of trying to influence the election outcome. Nevada Senator Harry Reid, who just a few months ago called Comey a man of great integrity for his decision not to press charges against Clinton over the email scandal, now suggests the FBI chief is breaking the law. Democrats are also playing the Russian card again. They have already called Trump, who favours better relations with Moscow, a Russian puppet. This week, Clinton campaign manager Robbie Mook accused the FBI of a double standard — of coming down hard on her even as it soft-peddles Russia’s alleged involvement in the leak of another trove of emails embarrassing to the Democrats.
“That Director Comey would show more discretion in a matter concerning a foreign state actor than one involving the Democratic nominee for president is nothing short of jaw-dropping,” Mook told the magazine Mother Jones.
Meanwhile, Trump is focusing attention on states like Michigan that don’t usually vote Republican. Perhaps this is an act of desperation. Or perhaps he is onto something.