Tough talk, less clout
Donald Trump talks tough. He complains that the United States is “very weak” and vows to “Make America Great Again.” He wants to go back to a lost time, decades ago, when “we were not pushed around, we were respected by everybody.”
It sounds like a prescription for American assertiveness, even aggression. But it’s just as likely that the United States under Trump will end up being a less engaged presence around the world. His rise may be a sign of American weakness, not strength.
It’s not clear what exactly Trump’s foreign policy — to the extent he has one — amounts to. It’s made even more complicated by the fact that he promises to be deliberately “unpredictable.” Keeping your enemies guessing is part of his art-of-the-deal negotiating strategy. The problem is it keeps your friends guessing as well.
What is clear is that the people who voted for Trump want him to focus on fixing domestic problems. They care about nation-building at home, not in messy foreign hot spots. They want a stronger economy, more jobs and investment in their own communities — not in Syria or Afghanistan.
So it’s no surprise that Trump has called into question international arrangements that depend on the U.S. backstopping allies in both Europe and Asia, and picking up much of the cost.
In Europe, he’s said NATO is “obsolete and extremely expensive” and questioned whether the U.S. would come to its allies’ defence unless he was satisfied they had paid their full share of the bill. No wonder NATO members close to Russia — like Ukraine and the Baltic states — are trembling at the prospect of being cut loose.
That’s made worse by Trump’s notoriously chummy attitude toward Russian president Vladimir Putin. It turned out this week that Russian officials had been in touch with Trump’s team during the election campaign, despite denials all along. If President Trump does go wobbly on Washington’s commitment to NATO and cozies up to Moscow, that will embolden Putin to expand Russia’s influence to the west and south.
In Asia, too, Trump questions expensive U.S. military commitments to Japan and South Korea. He even suggested they get their own nuclear weapons to defend themselves. All of sudden, China looks more reasonable, and it would be no surprise if Tokyo and Seoul move closer to Beijing. The Philippines has already headed in that direction.
That would end the United States’ so-called “pivot” towards Asia and open the door to China expanding its influence in its own neighbourhood. Suddenly, a Trump-led America would watch as both Russia and China get more assertive at its expense.
Trump also promises to rip up trade deals like NAFTA and impose 45-per-cent tariffs on imports from China. If he actually did such a thing, China would undoubtedly retaliate, leading to a dangerous trade war.
Given how enmeshed the U.S. and Chinese economies are by now, American business will no doubt put enormous pressure on him not to carry through. But just the possibility makes business very nervous, with good reason.
Then there are Trump’s even more provocative remarks on world affairs — including most alarmingly his casual talk about possibly using nuclear weapons. He has also said he would move the U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a shift that would enrage Arab countries. And, of course, he promises to bomb Daesh (a.k.a. the Islamic State) and “take the oil” — whatever that means.
It’s a combination of bombast, threats and ignorance, and it’s impossible to know exactly what it all adds up to. Trump almost certainly doesn’t know himself, given how little attention he’s paid to world affairs.
But on the face of it, it could well mean the U.S. will be so focused on rebuilding its own economy and undermining its commitments to allies that its rivals around the world will quickly enlarge their spheres of influence. Seventy years of “Pax Americana” — an international order anchored by the United States — will be called into question.
Tough-talking Trump may end up leaving the United States with a diminished role in the world.