Plenty of meat on NFL menu
Vikings-Lions kicks off U.S. Thanksgiving slate with no turkeys in sight
WASHINGTON— Watching NFL games on Thanksgiving is always special, but this year we are going to witness something we haven’t seen in 81 years: the three games on Thursday will mark the first time since 1935 where all teams involved have a record of .500 or better.
And all three games will have serious playoff implications. According to the New York Times NFL playoff forecaster, the Minnesota Vikings would see their playoff chances soar to 82 per cent with a win over the Detroit Lions. But that drops to 41 per cent with a loss, making it the game with the most playoff leverage this week.
The key for the Vikings will be containing quarterback Matt Stafford. Stafford completed close to 68 per cent of his passes for 2,651 yards and an 18-to-five touchdown-to-interception ratio, making him the seventh-best passer in the NFL this season according to ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating. The game charters at Pro Football Focus agree, ranking Stafford ninth of 29 qualified QBs.
Minnesota’s defence should be up to the task. Its pass rush is ranked fifth overall and their defensive line has an above-average sack rate after adjusting for down, distance and opponent (7.2 per cent compared with the league average of 6.1 per cent). Led by defensive end Danielle Hunter, who has three sacks in the past two games and seven sacks in total, Minnesota’s defensive front should get more pressure on Stafford than they did in Week 9 — the Vikings pressured Detroit on just 11 of 37 drop backs in that game.
The Washington Redskins could also make a playoff push of their own with a win over their NFC East rivals, the Dallas Cowboys. If the NFL season ended today, Washington would be the sixth seed, but its hold on a playoff berth is tenuous.
The Redskins have one objective: stop a Dallas offence that is leading the league in plays (7.6) and points (2.9) per drive with a defence that ranks 30th and 25th, respectively, in those same metrics.
To make things more difficult, Washington has to do it on a quick turnaround, having played the Green Bay Packers in prime time on Sunday night.
The soft spot in the Redskins’ defence lies in its inability to stop the run once an opposing rusher gets past the line of scrimmage. Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott, meanwhile, averages 2.81 yards per carry after contact.
In the late game, the Pittsburgh Steelers, winners over the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, can keep their playoff hopes alive with a victory over the Indianapolis Colts. A win on Thursday night moves their chances to 61 per cent, but a loss will reduce them to a concerning 38 per cent. Colts starting QB Andrew Luck is in the NFL’s concussion protocol, so look for backup Scott Tolzien — who has completed 56 of 91 passes with one TD and five interceptions in his career.