SWING AND A MISS?

Baseball’s free agents wait as CBA deadline closes in on labour talks,

Is baseball simply in too good shape financially to be disrupted by a damaging work stoppage? With a Dec. 1 deadline to negotiate and deliver a new collective bargaining agreement, there’s definitely some worry in the air in Dallas, where millionaire players and billionaire owners are hashing through some contentious issues.

WHAT’S AT STAKE?

Baseball hasn’t had a work stoppage in 22 years, and there’s still a prevailing belief that the owners and players could not possibly shut things down. According to Forbes, baseball took in almost $9.5 billion (U.S.) in 2016, and could hit $10 billion in 2017. Thanks in part to the Cubs’ dramatic run to the World Series, the sport’s television viewership reached its highest peak since 2001. And the Blue Jays, who have captivated their fan base over the past two seasons, became baseball’s 22nd highest-valued franchise at $900 million, with $241 million in revenue and a $148-million payroll at season’s end, Forbes said.

THE KEY ISSUES

The draft: The biggest sticking point appears to be the owners’ demand on holding an international draft. The players want to keep the draft as is — which includes only U.S. and Canadian-born amateurs, leaving players from key countries such as the Dominican Republic and Venezuela free to sign lucrative deals, even as teenagers.

Baseball argued that system was rife with corruption, but the players, particularly those from Latin countries, feel that an international draft closes off opportunities for young players who come from povertystricken regions. The owners have reportedly moved off their hard-line stance. Compensation: The owners appear amenable to eliminating draft-pick compensation to teams that lose players to free agency. Under the current system, teams can make qualifying offers to their free agents ($17.2 million this season), but if the players decline and sign elsewhere, the former team gets compensation picks between the first and second rounds of the draft.

That has been contentious for players since the loss of a pick can dis- suade teams from signing free agents and drive down the market.

If the qualifying system changes, Toronto could potentially lose the high draft picks they are in line for if Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista sign elsewhere.

Tax time: There is talk of raising the luxury tax threshold from $189 million to $200 million, and making changes to the penalties for going over that number. Right now, firsttime offenders are penalized by 17plus per cent; fourth-time offences are docked 50 per cent.

Rosters: There seems to be common ground on expanding roster sizes from 25 players to 26.

THE OFF-SEASON

At the moment, players who are testing free-agent waters — Encarnacion and Bautista, for instance — may have to wait until the new rules are ironed out.

The luxury tax threshold remains a key factor. For instance, the Red Sox, who have been rumoured to be interested in Encarnacion, have $166 million in payroll expected for 2017, with another $23 million potentially slotted for arbitration players.

Teams such as Boston who are interested in big bats could go to Plan B players such as Carlos Beltran, who should come cheaper than the $125 million Encarnacion is seeking.

That hasn’t stopped some big signings, however, with the Mets agreeing to a four-year, $110-million deal to keep Yoenis Cespedes in New York on Tuesday. That’s a positive development for Encarnacion.

Reports also suggest Houston is coming on strong in the Encarnacion sweepstakes. Encarnacion’s agent, Paul Kinzer, told TSN at least three teams have said they are waiting for a new CBA before extending offers to his client.

Kinzer also said the Jays are “showing the most love” to his client, and that Encarnacion could sign a deal this week or next.

WHAT’S NEXT

It’s been suggested that player union head Tony Clark and MLB commissioner Rob Manfred could simply extend the current agreement, which would kick start free-agent signings.

If the unthinkable happened and a lockout occurred, free agency would be put on hold and all players locked out of their team’s training facilities. But with about 10 weeks until spring training, there is conceivably enough time to complete a deal without affecting either spring workouts or the start of the 2017 season.