Scarborough split on transit needs

Poll shows near tie in support for LRT and subway extension

Scarborough residents are evenly divided on whether an LRT line or a subway extension best serves the eastern suburb’s transit needs, according to a new poll.

The survey by Forum Research Inc. found that 42 per cent of Scarborough respondents said the cancelled seven-stop LRT would be the better option, compared to 37 per cent who backed the one-stop subway extension the city is building.

Although more respondents favoured the LRT, the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points allows for a six point spread, meaning the results are effectively tied.

About one-fifth of Scarborough respondents said they didn’t know which project was best.

The LRT was more popular in the rest of Toronto — it was preferred by 44 per cent of respondents outside of Scarborough. Just more than one-quarter of voters in the rest of Toronto (27 per cent) said the subway extension was the best option.

While proponents of the expensive subway plan have argued there is broad support for it in Scarborough and that residents strongly oppose light rail, Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said the poll results show that “the conundrum of spending billions to build a one-stop subway has clearly dawned in Scarborough.”

“It may be that we are getting far away enough from the heat of the last mayoral election for common sense to trump poli- tics,” he added.

The poll surveyed 468 voters in Scarborough and 671voters in the rest of the city.

Council voted in July to move ahead with the subway extension of Line 2 (Bloor-Danforth), despite the projected cost of the single stop ballooning by $1 billion one month before the vote. The project is now estimated to cost $3.2 billion, but that estimate is expected to rise because it was based on council confirming a route for the extension in July, which didn’t happen.

At the same meeting, councillors rejected an attempt to revive the LRT plan, which would serve more residents at a lower cost. It was only the latest debate at city hall over controversial Scarborough transit plans. Council approved the lightrail line in 2012, but a year later reversed course and gave the subway extension the green light instead.

City planning and TTC staff are still studying potential subway routes and are expected to report back to the transit agency’s board and Mayor John Tory’s executive committee next month.

Although Tory defended the subway plan this summer and was instrumental in stickhandling it through city council, among his supporters, double the number of respondents said they preferred the LRT over the subway extension.

Fifty-three per cent of people who said they voted for Tory in the 2014 election picked the LRT as the best solution for Scarborough, compared to 27 per cent who chose the subway option.

The trend was reversed among respondents who said they voted for former councillor Doug Ford in the mayoral race. Only one-quarter of Ford supporters said the LRT was the best choice, while 42 per cent backed the subway extension.

At 60 per cent, support for the LRT was highest among people who said they voted for Olivia Chow.

In addition to asking which transit project was best for Scarborough, the poll asked whether respondents approved of each option. The LRT scored higher in approval both in Scarborough (54 per cent) and the rest of Toronto (60 per cent).

A minority, or 40 per cent, of Scarborough voters said they approved of the subway extension, while 50 per cent disapproved. In the rest of Toronto, only 28 per cent approved of the single-stop underground project, while 60 per cent disapproved.

The description used in the poll said the subway “will travel from Kennedy station to Scarborough Town Centre, will have one stop, and will cost more than $3 billion.”

The poll said the LRT “would travel along the route of the Scarborough RT to Markham and Sheppard, would have seven stops and was originally estimated to cost about $1.8 billion.” The poll also found that Tory’s approval rating remains buoyant, at 62 per cent. That’s virtually tied with his rating a week ago, which took a slight hit following his Nov. 24 announcement that he would support tolls on the Gardiner Expressway and Don Valley Parkway.

According to Forum’s numbers, Tory’s approval hasn’t dipped below 60 per cent since the company started polling on it in January 2015. The mayor, who this week marked his two-year anniversary in office, was at his most popular in November 2015, when 77 per cent of respondents said they approved of his job.

Forum conducted the poll on Nov. 29 and 30 using an interactive voice response telephone survey. Results are considered accurate plus or minus three percentage points,19 times out of 20. The results for just Scarborough respondents are considered less accurate.

Where appropriate, Forum has statistically weighted data by age, region, and other factors to ensure the sample reflects recent census data.