CUTTHROAT LEADERSHIP POLITICS
The number of Conservative contenders is huge — and so are the risks of being pushed aside.
The Conservative leadership race now has enough contenders to form a full soccer team, with some to spare — or, if they were all elected, their own party in the House of Commons.
At least 14 people are expected to be on the stage in Moncton, N.B., on Monday when the Conservatives hold their second leadership debate. That’s not even counting Kevin O’Leary, the businessman and former Dragon’s Den panelist who keeps popping up as a potential contender.
You have to wonder how many of these would-be leaders will be on the ballot at the end of May, when Conservatives finally get around to choosing their replacement for former prime minister Stephen Harper.
But even more than that: you might be wondering why anyone would want to run for leader at all — of any party — especially if the prospects of winning are remote.
The old answer used to revolve around “positioning.” Leadership candidates, even when ultimately unsuccessful, usually got plum jobs in cabinet when their party was in power: Finance or Foreign Affairs for the second-place finisher.
But that tradition has fallen by the wayside in Canada’s recent history — notably with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Joyce Murray, a Liberal MP from Vancouver, was in the news this week, speaking out against Trudeau’s approval of the Trans Mountain pipeline. “Incredibly disappointing,” Murray said in a statement. Her constituents, she later elaborated, were expressing “angst” and a strong “sense of betrayal” from her own Liberal government.
You might remember Murray — she ran a spirited campaign against Trudeau in the last Liberal leadership contest and placed second (a distant second, it should be said).
Murray did not end up in cabinet. Some of us were mildly surprised a year ago when Trudeau made that decision, but the conspicuous omission was lost amid all the talk of sunny ways and generational change.
In fact, none of the people who were on the final 2013 ballot with Trudeau ended up in cabinet. Karen McCrimmon, who placed last, is now a backbencher, representing Kanata-Carleton in the Commons. Deborah Coyne, mother of Trudeau’s half-sister, Sarah, went to the Green party after failing to win a Liberal nomination contest in Ottawa. Martha Hall Findlay is out of politics, president and CEO of the Canada West Foundation. Also out of politics is former cabinet minister Martin Cauchon, now heading up a newspaper chain in Quebec.
The final ballot of the 2013 Liberal leadership contest is looking now, in retrospect, like a ticket out of contention for cabinet.
Only one of Trudeau’s rivals in that contest three years ago ended up as a minister — Marc Garneau, Canada’s first man in space, now in charge of Transport. Garneau dropped out of the race about a month before the final balloting in April 2013. Perhaps he was rewarded for being clear-eyed in 2013 about his chances against Trudeau.
But so were David Bertschi and George Takach, whose nascent political careers came to an end after running up against the Trudeau machine and dropping out of the race. Bertschi, aggrieved, even went on to pursue legal action (now settled), alleging he was blocked from attempts to win a nomination in Ottawa. Takach is now back to his legal career in Toronto.
Out of that long where-are-they-now list, it’s fair to conclude that running against Trudeau in 2013 didn’t exactly result in ideal “positioning” for future political careers. In fact, it might have been a careerlimiting move, if cabinet was the goal.
We might also conclude that this reveals a ruthlessly unsentimental streak in Trudeau, which surfaces from time to time, such as when he’s ejecting senators or MPs from his caucus.
Yet he’s not the only Liberal leader who failed to reward his old rivals. Sheila Copps, immediately after placing a distant second against Paul Martin in the 2003 coronation, found herself embroiled in an ultimately unsuccessful bid to hold on to her seat in Hamilton — pushed out in a nasty nomination contest with Martin cabinet minister Tony Valeri.
Leadership campaigns, in short, are not the investment they once were in future political careers. It could be a reflection on politics as a meaner game these days, or its declining relevance in people’s lives: also-rans fall more quickly into public obscurity.
Which casts a whole puzzling new light on why all those people will be on stage in Moncton on Tuesday. With that many contenders competing for attention, it’s not going to be exactly compelling viewing — not like a debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, for instance.
Then again, it’s probably a good thing that none of the contenders will be threatening to put his or her opponents in jail. Here in Canada, winners don’t treat their old rivals that way — they just keep them out of cabinet. sdelacourt@bell.net