Edwin could still fit with Jays
Slugger’s price drops, and Toronto would be wise to take shot
NATIONAL HARBOR, MD.— It’s hard to feel sorry for Edwin Encarnacion because the team with which he chooses to play when his free-agent contract is negotiated is going to pay him more in three or four years than most people earn in a lifetime. But his expectations were even richer than that. Edwin’s misreading of his diminished dollar status in the free-agent market can be blamed on agent Paul Kinzer, who believed that a five-year contract was going to be a two-foot putt. The Jays were offering four years and no more — for $20 million (U.S.) per season — and they did not budge.
It can also be blamed on a players union that for decades has none-too-subtly encouraged players not to go with their heart but rather with their wallets. Players and agents in the past were chastised for perceived home-team discounts.
Jays fans are acutely aware Encarnacion wanted to play out his career in Toronto, but that window seems to have slammed shut — on Kinzer’s fingers. The Jays made their four-year, $80-million offer when free agent season opened. Most times that’s just a launching pad. But days later, the Jays signed Kendrys Morales for three years and $33 million and the landscape changed immediately.
Now, as Encarnacion’s free-agent price has shrunk to maybe even less than the Jays offered, it would take a Patrick Patterson half-court three-pointer at the buzzer for Edwin to have any chance of returning because that money is spent.
“There’s nothing new with Edwin,” Jays GM Ross Atkins said. “If there’s a way I don’t see it. I don’t think Paul sees it either. But we haven’t stopped trying. We feel good about our strategy, we do. If we knew the market would be less for any given player, we would factor that in. But how could you know that?”
Someone in MLB analytics should have seen coming this industry trend towards shorter term and higher annual-averagevalue. According to Atkins, there is a new stat being used by the geeks called Projected-WAR.
It’s more than my brain can handle, but basically it’s analysis that predicts the dollar value of future performance. Players always want to be paid for past performance, which seems okay, but only if you are re-signing with your own club. The new world order is shorterterm, higher per-annum.
The ripple effect of this new-wave statistic seems reflected already in the 52 free agents that have signed since the World Series ended. There has been just one five-year deal, that to outfielder Ian Desmond with the Rockies. There are four contracts of four years — Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick, Brett Cecil and Mark Melancon. There are 34 free-agent contracts for just one season, none of two and four of three years.
“I feel great about our progress thus far,” Atkins said, when asked if there would be disappointment leaving D.C. with nothing else accomplished.
“And feel that we’re in good position to make our team better.”
As for Jose Bautista, like Encarnacion, his market has collapsed and the demand of five years he was reportedly looking for in February seems far off. The Jays and Bautista’s agen, Jay Alou, did meet on Tuesday.
Then Atkins and Encarnacion’s agent met on Wednesday.
Bautista is equally as mystified.
Joey Bats wants to play a position in the field despite his loss of defensive effectiveness over the past two seasons. Many teams consider him a DH, and that eliminates 15 teams in the National League.
Then there are the Baltimore Orioles.
“Well, Jose Bautista’s agent has been knocking on the Orioles door for a while and I told him, ‘Look, our fans don’t really like Jose Bautista.’ And they don’t,” Orioles executive vice-president and general manager Dan Duquette said. “Not to mention he has a qualifying offer attached to him. I just made a comment in that we weren’t going to be pursuing their client. It’s true. “The guy’s a villain in Baltimore.” So in addition to being banned in Baltimore, Bautista is perceived as a villain also in Texas, where he and Rougned Odor duked it out at second base, and those fans and players still remember the bat-flip. So he’s also persona-non-Batsa in Arlington. The Jays are not reacting to Bautista’s late overtures; the only Jays offer was the $17.2-million qualifying offer, and now they seem to have moved on.
Oh yes, the Jays are still looking for outfield help, maybe even more than one bat, but Bautista is not on the current depth chart, their wish list. Atkins has a pecking order, but will not share it except to say they are expecting to negotiate one player at a time.
At the top of that list reportedly is switch-hitter Dexter Fowler.
“We have (outfielders) prepped in order of desire to acquire,” Atkins said.
“Then you factor in compensation and then what it means for what else we can acquire. Then you have to actually execute what we think is fair. We’ve already gone through what our ideal scenario is. It depends on how you define realistic.”
I know the Jays don’t like advice, but if you use the original four-year offer to Encarnacion as the guideline, if he is coming back to plead with them and willing to go down to two or three years, the Jays should do everything in their power to make it happen. They should make an effort to clear payroll from other areas in order to welcome Encarnacion back into the family.
Otherwise, Edwin is likely to end up with the Indians, who beat the Jays in the 2016 ALCS.