Jays come to terms with reality
Bautista contract adds up for club . . . maybe Joey Bats, too
Early Tuesday afternoon, multiple sources reported the drawn-out contract discussions between the Blue Jays and free-agent right fielder Jose Bautista had been completed. The result is one guaranteed season plus two mutual-option years at dollar values to be announced.
It is expected that the 2017 guaranteed money is greater than the Jays’ $17.2-million qualifying offer that Bautista turned down in November. The Jays emerge as clear winners in this deal. Certainly, Bautista is not the hitter he once was. He is not the clubhouse leader he once was. Joey Bats is no longer the face of the franchise he once was, and is surely not the defender he once was.
But he remains intimidating to opposing young pitch- ers, is still iconic to a generation of Jays’ fans and is better than any other option they could have come up with this late in the winter.
This is a season when they need to contend again in the American League East, because the new front office has not yet earned the blind loyalty of this fan base and this is a bad time to test it. Winning is essential to attendance and Rogers’ revenues.
Instead of Bautista, the Jays explored trading for short-term solutions including Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, Adam Eaton and Brett Gardner. But those moves would have cost them prospects, an area where they are not very deep.
So, they repatriated Bautista, a player who had been essential to the franchise for the past seven seasons, for basically the money they had offered three months ago. Clearly, they weren’t expecting Jose to accept that qualifying offer in November. It was issued in order to ensure draft-pick compensation. Yes, they would have accepted Bautista back at that price for one year. Instead, they window-shopped after badly miscalculating on Edwin Encarnacion, now in Cleveland.
Now Bautista’s back. At this stage it’s no longer a case of the Jays losing a draft pick, as some argue, because Bautista passed on other suitors that showed varying degrees of interest — Oakland, Philadelphia, Cleveland and Tampa. There were personal negatives for Bautista in all of those competing offers.
Number one was length of contract. There were not many teams looking at offering three-plus years, and they felt anything shorter than that was not worth a draft pick.
Number two was money. After he had allegedly gone on the record with Jays president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins last February with a demand of five years and $150 million — miscalculating the winter market for power-hitting free agents — it was tough for him to moonwalk back to reality for just one year without at least the possibility of more money and more term offered by the option years.
Number three was geography. Bautista is secure enough financially that he was able to show preference to teams that hold spring training close to his Florida home, even if it meant less money. Plus, he still wants to play for a contender and win. That eliminated many teams that were interested.
What about mutual-option years two and three in the contract? It says here that the odds of Bautista remaining a Jays outfielder for either of those years are low. The Jays have rarely, if ever, offered a mutual option and most MLB contracts that include one are opted out of, by one side or the other. Here are some possible Bautista scenarios for 2017.
Bautista has a fabulous year — say 35 homers, 110 RBIs and a .900 on-base plus slugging percentage — and the Jays accept their side of the 2018 option. Bautista would likely opt out, though, and try free agency again, for a chance at a three-year deal to end his career for the kind of money he expected this winter. The opt-out decision is made after the World Series.
Bautista gets injured a couple of times, misses around 45 games on the DL, hits 22 homers, drives in 70 runs and posts a .815 OPS. Those are basically the same stats nobody wanted to pay Bautista for in 2016. At that point, Jose would be inclined to accept the first option. But the Jays? They would most likely opt out and he would be on the market again.
Bautista has a solid year, proving the tank is not empty, but by July the Jays are fading rapidly, overwhelmed by the Red Sox, Yankees and others in the AL race. Atkins could then pick up the phone and attempt to trade him to a contender, and they can ask for a lot because he has two option years attached to sweeten the pot of prospects that could be demanded by the Jays. Even if there is a no-trade or limited-trade clause, which is doubtful, the Jays are winners in this scenario.
It was a long and winding road to this point, but this deal is likely the best result for both Bautista and the Jays. At one time, Bautista was the leader in the Jays clubhouse, but he seemed to back away from that role in his free- agent year. Leadership now falls to Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson. Bautista can focus on staying healthy, showing other teams they were wrong and selling his Booster Juice.
Bautista is better off returning to a familiar lineup in a country that respects him, playing for a contending team with a chance to re-establish his credentials.
The Jays, for their part, are better off now, adding a power bat to the middle of a suddenly suspect lineup without selling the farm, especially after anxiously eyeballing the existing top five outfielders on the 40man roster.
The fans are better off because they have showed loyalty and passion the past two seasons and are looking for more in return. The Bautista deal is a short-term solution, but now Atkins focuses on a backup catcher, a couple of bullpen arms and playing ball.
Of course, the best solution was always Edwin.