Trudeau well-placed to deal with Trump
Brian Mulroney likes to remind aspirant prime ministers they would have one job as important as leading Canada successfully: building a strong personal relationship with the president of the United States, and nurturing it carefully, throughout your time in office.
Sadly, it is not a view that many Canadian prime ministers have shared, often to their cost. Diefenbaker, Pearson, Chrétien were disasters. Most recently, Stephen Harper’s adolescent insulting of Barack Obama cost him and Canada dearly.
Justin Trudeau has been handed a White House management test that might have stumped even a seasoned Canada/ U.S. pro like the most successful Conservative prime minister of the past century. However, Mulroney is not easily defeated by even such a formidable challenge as the Twitter Terror of Trump Tower. He believes that even with such a volatile and explosive president it is incumbent on the PMO to reach and develop relationships from the top to the bottom of the West Wing. Perhaps, especially, with such a president.
Trudeau seems to have arrived at the same conclusion. One might judge that this is another proof of his training in leadership relations from childhood, except that his dad was also a disaster at Washington management.
No, Trudeau seems to be following his impulse to get in front of, rather than be driven by a potential crisis, viz. refugees, First Nations, pipelines. A path has been worn between the Langevin Block and Trump Tower since Nov. 9, with Canada’s new foreign minister, Chrystia Freeland, leading the parade.
They have reached out to academics, business leaders, former diplomats and political leaders for insight and counsel on this strange new president. They have begun the process of agenda building and prospective issue management, with NAFTA and softwood lumber near the top of the list.
Next they will no doubt mobilize Canada’s not inconsiderable fan club among U.S. governors, congressmen and business leaders. Trump may not now be aware of the fact that 38 states — most of them Republican — have Canada as their number one trade partner. He will be soon.
So far, the Trudeau team have kept all this heavy lifting quiet, making little comment publicly about the bizarre days ahead. The caucus has been told to be cautious even about Trumpbashing jokes. Trudeau has been careful, in recent townhalls, to underline his determination to defend Canadian interests and values, but does so mildly.
The media has been starved of the leaks this government is very good at employing to stay in front of a challenging news story. It’s been a wise call, given the prospect of a Trump Twitter attack for even the mildest critique of the most unstable person to occupy the most powerful office in the world.
It may yet all go south, as it were. Former Canadian auto executive Sergio Marchione mused dourly that auto production in Canada could yet be slammed by a Trump tariff war. Tovarisch Trump may yet spin out of control if the Russian rumours get legs. (Some silly media speculation about Minister Freeland’s being on Putin’s blacklist as a problem for her in her new role simply revealed their ignorance that she knows more Putin oligarchs, knows more about their political culture, enmities and style — and has written the book on them — than any of her peers.)
If it does go bad, Trudeau having made every effort to avoid a collision, it will look good on him and his government. When the usual Conservative attack dogs sneer that he has been Trumped out of naivete, inexperience, whatever, most Canadians will say, “No, he was the adult, dealing with an adolescent bully.”
If it comes to battle, even more Canadians will say, “Hit him again!” If the need develops for a network of global leaders to stage an intervention in the Oval Office, Trudeau may be asked to help assemble the team. So from this perspective it seems that if Trudeau wins concessions, or simply neglect from Trump, he wins politically with Canadians. If he loses to Trump’s trade follies, despite having fought hard, he wins politically. If the world seeks a captain for a team of leaders to challenge Trump from Europe and Asia, he will be considered a strong candidate, and win again.
Not bad positioning for someone who has never faced such a strange and frightening political partner. Mulroney has been as silent as the grave on all this, turning down hungry media inquiries almost daily. Nonetheless, one suspects he would approve of the current PM’s strategy and determination, no matter the odds.