Wynne must take Trump threat more seriously

Nothing matters more for Justin Trudeau today than managing trade ties with the U.S.

And no province is more exposed than Ontario — which makes Kathleen Wynne no less accountable.

Just as the prime minister will be judged, so too the premier will be held liable if that high-stakes relationship is imperilled on her watch.

To his credit, Trudeau has been playing the long game. But Ontario’s premier is playing catch-up — and needs to raise her game.

The PM showed admirable circumspection last summer, holding his tongue when everyone around him was bashing Donald Trump’s improbable bid for the presidency. Wynne, by contrast, couldn’t resist condemning Trump’s undeniably deplorable conduct — which plays well at home but is no way to win friends and influence politicians in America.

The premier has been more re- strained since Trump won. With a renewed sense of urgency bordering on desperation, she is talking up Ontario’s cross-border ties.

Her new talking points stress the pivotal role of Canada’s industrial heartland in the bilateral relationship. Quite apart from the big number — $141 billion in American imports last year — she is banking on the state-by-state breakdown to keep the relationship whole.

Ontario is the biggest export destination for 20 states, and the secondbiggest customer for another seven states. That adds up to $800 million a day in two-way trade, which bankrolls 9 million U.S. jobs.

But in a political world of lies, damned lies and statistics, those numbers can be twisted and spun out of shape. Words matter at least as much, which is why Wynne must strike a balance between persuasiveness and boastfulness.

By calling attention to Ontario’s dominant position in auto production this week, the premier may have helped herself, but she didn’t help the province. Immersed in a war of words with Kevin O’Leary (the maverick Tory leadership aspirant), who trash-talked Ontario, she tried to talk up the province’s share of the production pie.

“Over the past five years, Ontario has accounted for 14.6 per cent of all the auto production in North America, surpassing the share enjoyed by any other jurisdiction on either side of the border,” she countered. “Ontario has attracted roughly $2 billion worth of new auto sector investment in the last few months alone — far outpacing Michigan.”

Fair point, but those facts are best kept under the radar at a time when the new president is taking aim at any available target with his “America first” doctrine of trade retaliation. Sometimes, tact Trumps truth.

As Wynne struggles to find the right tone, she is missing an opportunity to show a better diplomatic face in the U.S. capital.

Trudeau had the foresight to appoint a savvy operator as Canada’s ambassador to Washington: David MacNaughton is a Liberal political consultant whose spouse (and business partner) Leslie Noble is a former top aide to ex-Tory premier Mike Harris. As a power couple, they straddle the political spectrum, able to connect with Republicans on Capitol Hill and in the White House.

As Trump took power, Trudeau went further: He moved decisively to dump former Liberal leader Stéphane Dion as his foreign affairs minister, replacing him with Chrystia Freeland, who has stronger American affinities.

By contrast, Ontario’s trade envoy in Washington is a Wynne crony, former Liberal MPP Monique Smith, with no discernible talent for cross-partisan engagement. Smith worked on the premier’s transition team in early 2013, but didn’t know when to transition herself out — prompting Wynne’s advisers to use Washington as an exit strategy. All these years later, she seems as illsuited for American diplomacy as Dion was, occupying a post too vital to be a dumping ground.

There is no shortage of talented political operators who could lobby Americans with more charm and skill for the greater good of Ontario: former treasurer Dwight Duncan, former trade minister Sandra Pupa- tello and ex-Tory leader Tim Hudak (who studied in the U.S.) all grew up in border towns, and can speak the language of U.S. partisans.

Apart from that missed diplomatic opportunity, Wynne has wisely developed strong relationships with her U.S. counterparts. As premier, she has met many U.S. governors who export heavily to Ontario, not least Indiana’s Mike Pence — now Trump’s vice-president — who led a trade mission to Toronto in 2014. She has cultivated especially close ties with Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder.

They all share a common understanding of bilateral trade and the interconnectedness of the auto sector — where a vehicle can cross the border seven times in the production process. But while economics dictates those relationships at the subnational level, politics intrudes at the national level.

Trudeau has made the right moves, so far, to recalibrate the relationship. What about Wynne? Martin Regg Cohn’s political column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. mcohn@thestar.ca Twitter: @reggcohn