Kevin McGran breaks down the stretch drive contenders . . .
With half of the league on the bubble to make the playoffs, which teams’ ambitions are most likely to burst?
The Arizona Coyotes and Colorado Avalanche are not making the playoffs, so all trade speculation starts with them. It also looks as if Detroit’s run of consecutive appearances will end at 25. Also obvious are the teams that are making the playoffs: Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Montreal and the New York Rangers in the East; San Jose, Anaheim, Edmonton, Minnesota and Chicago in the West. Here’s a look at the playoff races in the East and West, with the East far closer than the West (percentages courtesy SportsClubStats.com through Monday’s games): EASTERN CONFERENCE
OTTAWA SENATORS
Second in Atlantic with 64 points
Games remaining: 29 Trend: Ottawa has excellent goaltending with Craig Anderson (2.34 GAA, .927 save percentage). Guy Boucher is proving his worth in his second go-round as an NHL coach. The Senators are solid up the middle and have a game-breaker in Erik Karlsson on defence. Their core is the right age to peak.
Issue: The Senators are struggling at the gate and may not be willing to add talent at the trade deadline.
Chances: 84.1 per cent
BOSTON BRUINS
Third in Atlantic with 64 points
Games remaining: 24 Trend: The Bruins are performing well for their new coach, and have an intriguing blend of youth and experience. Tuukka Rask is proven performer in net . . . Brad Marchand having a terrific year with 24 goals.
Issue: They’ve played more games than anyone else in the hunt and don’t have a points cushion to protect themselves. They have to get more than a bump from a new coach to ride out the rest of the season.
Chances: 54.6 per cent
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Fourth in Atlantic, second wild card with 61 points Games remaining: 28 Trend: They’ve been bumbling about since the all-star break, not looking at all like the team they were in December and early January . . . Mike Babcock is a superb motivator and would deserve the credit if this team overachieves in what is really Year One of the build . . . It helps to have the league’s second-ranked power play and ninth-ranked penalty kill.
Issue: They are a young team with very little experience in playoffs drives. The players with that experience haven’t done so well with it.
Chances: 67.4 per cent
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
Fifth in Metropolitan with 61 points
Games remaining: 26 Trend: They’re bad on the road (1013-3) and play 15 of the remaining 26 away . . . Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth have combined for a 2.87 goals-against average and .897 save percentage. . . . They are 6-8-1 in their own division with a steady diet of Metropolitan teams lined up.
Issue: The Flyers went on a 17-6-4 run starting Valentine’s Day last year to inch into the playoffs. They need at least 15 wins to give themselves a 50 per cent chance.
Chances: 7.9 per cent
NEW YORK ISLANDERS
Sixth in Metropolitan with 60 points
Games remaining: 28 Trend: New coach Doug Weight has awoken a team that had underachieved under Jack Capuano . . . The Islanders have been playoff regulars lately with captain John Tavares carrying the team on his shoulders.
Issue: Thomas Greiss has been fantastic since getting the No. 1 job in net (17-9-5, 2.42, .922) but the career backup doesn’t have a track record.
Chances: 45.1 per cent
FLORIDA PANTHERS
Fifth in Atlantic with 58 points
Games remaining: 28 Trend: The Panthers are finally healthy, with Jonathan Huberdeau back from an Achilles tendon injury and reunited with linemates Aleksander Barkov and Jaromir Jagr. They’re target is third place in the Atlantic. They are six points behind Boston, with four games in hand. Issue: Goalie Roberto Luongo has allowed 25 goals in his past seven outings . . . Only 17-14-6 against Eastern Conference teams. Chances: 12.4 per cent
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Sixth in Atlantic with 57 points
Games remaining: 26 Trend: Fighting for their playoff lives, he Lightning had won three of four, then hit its bye-week. Teams coming out of the bye week are a combined 15-22-3 in their first five after a bye, according to tampabay.com. They are 9-5-3 within the division, giving them hope of catching Boston and/or Toronto.
Issue: Injuries have been a problem all year, with Steve Stamkos out since Nov. 15 . . . The goaltending of Ben Bishop and Andrei Vasilevskiy has not been as good as anticipated.
Chances: 11.5 per cent
NEW JERSEY DEVILS
Seventh in Metropolitan with 56 points Games remaining: 27 Trend: They have done well in makeor-break situations, posting 3-0-1 records twice to rebound from bad stretches . . . They have trouble scoring, and keeping the puck out of the net.
Issue: The second wild card is all they can hope for, but it’s five points away and they have to climb over the Islanders, Flyers and Leafs to get there. The Leafs and Islanders have games in hand. Chances: 2.3 per cent
BUFFALO SABRES
Seventh in Atlantic with 56 points
Games remaining: 26 Trend: They’re over their injury problems, but haven’t been able to get on a roll. Coach Dan Byslma may be on the hot seat as a result. They may be wiser to trade Brian Gionta or Matt Moulson at the deadline for younger players to fit in with Jack Eichel.
Issue: A 13-17-8 record against teams from the East has hurt the Sabres. And conference play is on the menu.
Chances: 4.7 per cent
CAROLINA HURRICANES
Eighth in Metropolitan with 55 points
Games remaining: 29 Trend: They’re a last-place team but have played fewer games than anyone and have gone on hot streaks before . . . Their defence is solid with Justin Faulk and Noah Hanifin, but goaltending is suspect with Cam Ward . . . Decent offence from rookie Sebastian Aho (17 goals) and Jeff Skinner (18 goals).
Issue: The Canes thankfully only have 12 games left on the road, 17 at home where they are 17-6-1. Two home games are against Toronto, who they’re chasing for the second wild-card. They’ve owned the Leafs.
Chances: 13.1 per cent WESTERN CONFERENCE
ST. LOUIS BLUES
Third in Central with 63 points
Games remaining: 26 Trend: The Blues are 5-1-0 since Mike Yeo took over from Ken Hitchcock. Goaltending has also made a turn for the better . . . Jake Allen is 3-0 under Yeo, with a 1.00 GAA and .967 save percentage.
Issue: Dominant at home (17-9-4) good enough on the road (12-13-1) is a recipe for success. Good special teams: Penalty kill is ranked fifth, power play seventh.
Chances: 93.2 per cent
NASHVILLE PREDATORS
Fourth in Central, first wild card with 62 points Games remaining: 26 Trend: Defencemen Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis are finally all healthy at the same time . . . They’ve picked up points in 11 of their last 16 games.
Issue: The Preds play 26 games in 50 days in their sprint to the finish, needing at least 15 wins. They’ll need to break out of their win-one, loseone format.
Chances: 80.8 per cent
LOS ANGELES KINGS
Fourth in Pacific, second wild card with 60 points Games remaining: 27 Trend: They face higher-placed teams only 10 times the rest of the way. They are 15-8-1 at home and have 18 favourable home dates remaining . . . Jeff Carter has 29 goals . . . Kings will add at the trade deadline. Issue: Their top goalie, Jonathan Quick, should be back in March. Chances: 87.4 per cent
CALGARY FLAMES
Fifth in Pacific with 59 points
Games remaining: 25 Trend: A promising 3-1-0 stretch including wins over the Pittsburgh Penguins and Minnesota Wild came to a halt with the mandatory break . . . Matthew Tkachuk is having a splendid rookie campaign . . . Sam Bennett (minus-10) has yet to show his potential. Issue: They’re 4-2-0 over their last six, relatively healthy and don’t face a top-tier opponent until March 9 (at home to Montreal) . . . Goalie Brian Elliott has won eight of his last 12.
Chances: 30.1 per cent
VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Sixth in Pacific with 56 points
Games remaining: 27 Trend: Two things tend to trend in Vancouver: #TeamTank and #TeamPlayoffs. They can’t be both, but sometimes that’s exactly what they seem. The team believes they’re good enough to make the playoffs. Few others.
Issue: Their core of Henrik and Daniel Sedin and goalie Ryan Miller are well past their best-before date . . . Their youth in Jake Virtanen and Troy Stetcher have a ways to go.
Chances: 7.1 per cent