What’s at stake for U.K. gamblers
Paul Krishnamurty lost about $15,000 in November after placing an online bet.
The professional gambler and writer of the Political Gambler blog didn’t lose it on the horses or a big game, though. He lost it because Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in the United States presidential election. Much like most pollsters, he thought Clinton was a shoo-in. Like most pollsters, he was wrong.
“I was supremely confident. I though she was going to win by a landslide,” Krishnamurty told Fortune.
Still, he may have a chance to recoup his dough, as betting on Trump’s presidency didn’t end with the election. In fact, it’s more popular than ever. “Donald Trump being president is a brilliant thing for betting companies in the United Kingdom. He has created an incredible amount of interest in betting,” said Alex Donohue, PR manager of British oddsmak- ers and betting website Ladbrokes.
Trump’s unpredictability is the key, as his actions “lead to speculation which can be translated into betting,” Donohue said.
Thrill-seeking gamesters can toss money down on anything from whether Trump will visit Russia before the end of the year to if he will win the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize (100-to-1odds). Paddy Power, an Irish gambling website, offers more outlandish bets on such scenarios as “next retailer to drop Ivanka Trump,” “When will Sean Spicer leave/get sacked as White House press secretary” and if Trump will “be officially accused of Russian collusion.”
On both sites, though, “the main bet would be impeachment or will he finish the term,” Donohue said.
This week, Ladbrokes was offering an even payout — 1-to-1odds, in other words. That means if a gambler bets $1 on a Trump impeachment and is proven correct, he receives $2 back. Many, many people are betting.
“We face a six-figure payout should The Donald resign or find himself impeached before the end of his first term,” Ladbrokes spokesperson Jessica Bridge said via email. “Simply put, British bettors do not trust Trump as far as they could throw him and are willing to stake hefty amounts of money on him failing.”
Ladbrokes had originally set the impeachment odds at 3-to-1.
The odds, though, are constantly shifting in accordance with where bettors are putting their money — the house likes to have an equal amount bet on both sides, allowing it to keep the percentage of wagers it charges as bookmaker.
The house doesn’t always win, though. As Politico reported, following Trump’s victory in November, Paddy Power lost nearly $5 million after paying out bets on the election.
The payout odds of Trump being impeached, then, are not predictive of how likely such an outcome is. They reflect how likely bettors think it will be. The real story, Donohue said, isn’t what will happen with Trump’s presidency, but how invested the U.K. has become in it.