Love olive oil? You might want to start stockpiling it

ROME— From specialty shops in Rome to supermarkets around the world, lovers of Italian olive oil are in for some sticker shock this year, with prices due to jump by as much as 20 per cent.

The combination of bad weather and pests hit the harvest in Southern Europe, most of all in Italy, where production is halved from last fall. That’s pushing up Italian wholesale prices by 64 per cent as of mid-February compared with a year earlier, which translates to shelf price increases of 15 to 20 per cent in Italy.

In other countries, the ultimate price increases will depend on several factors — such as how much retailers take on the costs themselves and the change in currency values. The U.S., for example, is likely to see a more modest rise in price as a stronger dollar keeps a lid on the cost of imports.

Italy’s harvest was especially hard hit by the combination of early rains that knocked buds off the trees and the threat of an olive fly that forced an early harvest, further cutting yields. Wholesale prices of olive oil from Spain, the world’s largest producer, are up a more modest 10 per cent, with yields similar to last year’s.

Vincenzo Iacovissi, the owner of the Sapor d’Olio olive oil shop in Rome, says sales have dropped, though he’s tried to ease the shock for customers by explaining why prices have gone up.

“When there are increases of 15 to 20 per cent there is some impact on sales. However, explaining the reasons for this increase has in part helped to make up for this,” Iacovissi said.

Italians collectively consume about 20 per cent of the world’s olive oil, leading Spain at 16 per cent, and that affinity makes them pretty resilient as consumers. The U.S. is the thirdbiggest market, consuming 10 per cent of the yearly total.

Flaminia Leoni, a 50-year-old mother of four, buys 80 to 100 litres of olive oil a year for her family and says that at most she will consider substituting lower quality olive oil for extra virgin for cooking — but not on the table, where olive oil is a staple giving accent to pasta, meats, salads and vegetables.

With global stocks down just 14 per cent, no one is predicting general olive oil shortages, even with a 75per-cent increase in consumption of olive oil over the last 25 years as demand pushed into non-traditional markets.

The market for olive oil in the period has grown by twofold in the United States, sevenfold in Britain and 14 fold in Japan, according to Italy’s Coldiretti farm lobby, even if continental Europe remains by far the largest market.