Trump takes kerosene strategy to the Mideast
U.S. president’s chaotic and inflammatory positions help China, Russia
DUBAI— To any American president, the Middle East is an overwhelmingly difficult nut to crack — or control. It took Barack Obama eight turbulent years to discover that. In the end, his ambitious hopes and dreams for the region were not realized during his presidency.
Remarkably, it has taken barely eight weeks for us to learn the same thing about Donald Trump. All signs now point to the likelihood that his simple-minded agenda for the Middle East will also crash and burn.
Trump’s problem is self-inflicted. His chaotic presidency is running into its own internal ideological contradictions. How can the United States project persuasive 21st-century influence and power in the world when its own government seems committed to an isolationist “America First” policy that calls for U.S. resources and interests to retreat to within its borders?
If you were a national leader, would you buy a used car from this guy, let alone entrust the fate of your country to him? Of course you wouldn’t, and we’re already seeing the consequences of that.
To get a preview of what is beginning to happen in the Middle East, look at what is already at play in Asia.
China is aggressively filling the vacuum being left by Trump’s America. The U.S. decision under Trump to abandon the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement was a blow to the many Asian allies of the United States that had supported the deal.
The TPP notably excluded China in what was supposed to be the largest trade treaty ever signed. It was an effort by the Obama administration to curtail China’s power in the region. The agreement’s collapse delighted China. America’s Asian allies, for their part, now have reason to doubt Washington’s staying power.
A similar transformation seems to be taking place in the Middle East. For decades, the United States was the superpower that dominated the region, but that role is being gradually superseded by Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
Like China, Putin can see an opening. It is significant that this week he is hosting the leaders of Turkey and Israel at the Kremlin. The Russian president is trying to consolidate his country’s role as the power broker in Syria and, perhaps eventually, throughout the region.
Putin is benefiting from American stumbles. Trump’s erratic Mideast moves in these first weeks of his presidency, coming so soon after Obama’s reluctance to intervene in the Syrian civil war, have rattled the region. Even traditional U.S. allies, such as the Gulf states, are beginning to hedge their bets.
On three of his key Middle East issues — Iran, “Islamic terror” and Israel — Trump is already running into trouble.
On Iran, Trump was bellicose and outspoken during the campaign. He promised to scrap the recent international nuclear agreement with Iran, which it now appears he will not do. Its other signatories — America’s European allies, Russia and China — have indicated they intend to stick with the deal.
Prodded by Israel, Trump also vowed to isolate and ostracize Iran, but there are signs from the Gulf states that the reverse is happening. In spite of their rivalry, there appears to be a genuine rapprochement beginning to take shape between Tehran and its neighbours.
On the issue of what Trump calls “radical Islamic terrorism,” he persists in using an expression that provides a boost to the very terrorist groups Trump condemns. It is as if he wants to be their agent. They will continue to be a threat.
As for Israel, the right-wing government of Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be embarking on a national suicide mission with Trump as the official cheerleader. During Netanyahu’s visit to Washington last month, Trump scrapped the international consensus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the most casual way: “I am looking at two-state and one-state (solutions) and I like the one that both parties like.”
The U.S. president failed to mention what Obama warned of on several occasions: that a “one-state” solution for Israel would mean the end either of a Jewish state or a democratic one.
That omission pretty well sums up Trump’s entire approach to the Middle East.
Who would have thought that, in 2017, the most dangerous threat to Middle East peace would come from Washington? Tony Burman is former head of Al Jazeera English and CBC News. Reach him @TonyBurman or at tony.burman@gmail.com.