LESSONS FROM THE DUTCH VOTE
It’s a blow for the far right, but hate remains on the ballot elsewhere,
This has been a dramatic week in the battle for Europe. The Dutch election is over, the incumbent prime minister has won, his far-right racist rival has lost and the sound of fizzy Champagne bottles popping open can be heard throughout the capitals of Europe.
But does this mean that the right-wing, populist dragon in Europe has been slain and we can all go back to where we much prefer to be, obsessing about Donald Trump’s latest tweets? Well no, not quite.
Here are five lessons from the crucial Netherlands election: 1. It’s a triumph with limited impact By any measure, the victory by incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte was impressive. His party will be the largest in the Dutch parliament by far, and he is certain to lead a coalition government. His populist challenger, Geert Wilders, came in a distant second. Wilders had led polls for nearly two years until recently. The Dutch vote received intense international attention in a year of crucial European elections where extreme right-wing parties are a threat. Voters in France go to the polls next month, followed by Germany and then, possibly, Italy. But, even though Rutte’s victory may give other mainstream European politicians a psychological boost, most analysts believe it will have little impact on other elections. 2. The mainstream lost as much as it won Result aside, there were aspects of the campaign itself that may surface elsewhere. Rutte, ostensibly a “liberal,” did little to challenge the anti-Muslim rhetoric of Wilders. In fact, Rutte incorporated some of Wilders’ themes into his own campaign. This included a full-page letter in Dutch newspapers that criticized Muslim immigrants for not integrating into Dutch society: “Behave normally, or leave,” the letter warned. This meant that Rutte fought Wilders on his own terms, instead of providing Dutch voters with a positive, high-minded vision of a Netherlands strengthened by its multicultural character. The result from the vote was looming political chaos in the country: an unprecedented splintering of Dutch politics where 12 parties are now fighting for a small slice of the pie. 3. The real winner was ‘Jessiah’ At a time when left and centre-left political parties are struggling throughout Europe, a surprising winner was the Green-Left party, led by a 30-year-old who is often compared in the Netherlands to Justin Trudeau. Jesse Klaver, dubbed by supporters as “Jessiah,” saw his party boost its number of MPs from four to 14. Klaver’s rallies were among the campaign’s largest and his TV debate appearances were praised. The son of a Moroccan father and Indonesian mother, Klaver told reporters on election day that the left should challenge the far right by standing up for their ideals. “What I would say to all my left-wing friends in Europe: don’t try to fake the populace.” 4. The battle for France is key Perhaps the most enthusiastic reaction to the Dutch election came from mainstream politicians in France, where far-right leader Marine Le Pen is a serious threat. This is the vote that may shape the next stage of modern European history. The first round of presidential election voting is next month, and a win for Wilders would have been a considerable boost to Le Pen. Reflecting that anxiety, a spokesperson for JeanClaude Juncker, European Commission president, called the Dutch result “a vote against extremists.” Emmanuel Macron, the centrist candidate, is just barely ahead of Le Pen in recent polls. 5. Europe’s moderate centre can win The Dutch result, even if its impact proves to be limited, may be a sign of a wider trend. The initial fear was that the British vote for “Brexit” and the American vote for Donald Trump would trigger a wave throughout Europe in the direction of far-right, antiimmigrant political parties.
But the reverse may be happening. In addition to the loss by Wilders, there are signs that support for Le Pen and for the far-right party in Germany is declining. There may be a backlash beginning to emerge against the radical right.
If so, that might encourage people, once again, to look at what else is on offer, and this would be another opportunity for Europe’s leaders to truly connect with popular concerns and worries. In politics, it is rare to have a second chance. Tony Burman is the former head of Al Jazeera English and CBC News. Reach him @TonyBurman or at tony.burman@gmail.com.