Leafs need to make most of advantage
Brink or blink.
The margin of error — of difference, really — is eyelash fine between the No. 1 seed and the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference opening round.
That’s the most astonishing part of this immensely enjoyable series betwixt Toronto and Washington, which the Capitals are anxious to put in the rearview mirror on Sunday night and the Leafs are equally desperate to extend into a Game 7 showdown.
Just about even-up on goals: 16-15, Caps ahead.
Exactly even-up on shots: 175 apiece.
The fault line runs through the power play, and it was primarily distorted by Game 5 when the Leafs went 0-for-4 with the man advantage, mustering a mere four shots on Braden Holtby. They were repeatedly thwarted as they tried to penetrate the offensive zone utilizing an entry system that had paid off handsomely in the regular season, when Toronto had the second most effective power play in the NHL, clicking at 23.77 per cent.
But the Capitals, of course, are the most goal-stingy team in the league and they’ve seen enough of the Leafs over five games to apply a countering strategy. Whether Toronto can counter-counter tactically — and Saturday morning’s off-ice coaching tutorial zeroed in on the matter — might very well be the determining factor on whether the Leafs play on or pack up.
“The power play is definitely an area that we have to improve on,” said Morgan Rielly, he of the awesomely playoff-hammered face. “Over the course of the series, we’ve gotten some big goals, most notably the overtime one.” That was Tyler Bozak’s Game 3 winner 97 seconds into the extra session.
“That being said, we weren’t good enough (Friday) night. Missed opportunities to capitalize on in an area of the game we should take a lot of pride in.”
Again, it’s not merely about what our how the Leafs failed to convert. It’s about now having the know-how to disrupt Washington’s strategy. Essentially, the Capitals have repelled Toronto’s power-play sorties, standing them up at the blue line, forcing them into an extra drop pass, sealing off infiltration seams and, crucially, buying an extra second or two to establish the defensive box-out, deflecting passes and blocking shots. The Caps blocked 22 shots in Game 5 — 22 saves Holtby never had to make.
“The goalie was good but when we went over the tape of what happened, most of what we saw was us doing it to ourselves and not executing,” Rielly said. “That said, they’ve got good penalty killers, they work hard, they have lots of speed. It’s going to be a big factor in the next game, I think.”
Flexing power-play muscle has been pivotal in this series — threw was only one even-strength goal on Friday — with the edge, albeit slight (Washington at 5-for-15, Toronto at 3-for-17) a forensic factor in the state of this encounter.
The power play is a gift and the Leafs failed to exploit it, despite superior speed, although the Caps were more hard-nosed about denying time and space in Game 5, laying 34 hits, with an extra spear or stab here and there.
“Obviously that’s a big factor, actually for both teams,” noted Washington coach Barry Trotz. “During the regular season Toronto was one or two in the league and we were right there with them. If you can keep your special teams going through the playoffs, it is a big factor in a series.
“It can be because of the fact that the 5-on-5 play becomes so tight at times that that can be a deciding factor. Consistency on the special teams has been huge.”
To a man, the Leafs were dismayed by their power-play goose egg.
“I didn’t think the power play was bad until the last game,” coach Mike Babcock said. “Last game we bobbled and turned the puck over way too much. Give them credit but a lot of them were unforced by ourselves.
“We won four faceoffs and we didn’t do much with them. Just overall execution on our breakout.
The Leafs won five of six powerplay faceoffs in the third and couldn’t retain possession and command of the play in the offensive zone.
“Any time you’re entering that many times,” Babcock said, “you’re not staying in their zone enough.’’
“We struggled a bit last game,” admitted William Nylander. More than just a bit. “It would help get momentum our way.
“We just got to stick to what we’ve been doing all year. We were doing the basic things. The puck was bouncing a little bit (Friday). We weren’t able to play the way we wanted to play. We watched some video and hopefully we’ll be able to fix that up.” A quick fix is required. Starting with the puck, as Babcock noted, would be helpful. Nazem Ka- dri was a pitiful 4-for-15 in the dot. Bozak was unhappy after winning 9 of 19 faceoffs.
“They made some adjustments that we didn’t adapt to well enough as a unit,” Bozak said of Washington’s penalty kill.
“They’ve been doing a better job against us breaking in. I haven’t been winning as many faceoffs as I want to in those situations so I have to bear down in the circle and have a start with the puck instead of chasing it down.”
Key Toronto power play goals have shape-shifted the series: Rielly put the Leafs up 3-2 with 14 seconds left in the middle frame of Game 2, Bozak scored the winner in Game 3, James van Riemsdyk kick-started a Game 4 rally that fell just short.
They know how to do this. They have two dangerous power-play units.
The odd thing about this series is that each team has taken their foot off the other’s neck. Which is why Trotz was talking about pushing the Leafs off a cliff on Sunday. Toronto has to find traction at home, then push back mightily. “When you have someone down and you have a chance to step on them,” Babcock said, “you step on them or they might get up and kill you.”