DEEP THOUGHTS ON HOMER SURGE
More hitters embrace the science behind the long ball, giving even today’s nastiest pitchers nightmares
It’s shaping up to be another long season for major league pitchers.
Based on plate appearances per home run and homers per batted ball, hitters are on a record-smashing pace in 2017.
On May 14 alone — albeit a day with two doubleheaders and 17 games in total — there were 52 long balls, matching the second-most on a single day in the last decade.
Homer totals have been climbing since an epic low in 2014, despite tougher pitching thanks to increasingly greater use of specialized roles in the bullpen; more power arms capable of uncorking 98-m.p.h. fourseam fastballs; and advancements in the study of spin rates, leading to sliders that break later and changeups that are harder for the hitter to read. The number of strikeouts, like the number of long balls, is rising.
Hitters strike back in part by studying two advanced metrics in particular: exit velocity and launch angle — compiled by Statcast and becoming more and more familiar to fans tracking games online, and in some TV coverage.
Washington’s Ryan Zimmerman — off to the best start of his career, hitting .365 with 13 homers through Saturday — was said to have factored launch angles into his approach for the first time this season. There are other theories. A new standard baseball was introduced at the 2015 all-star game, about the same time homers began to take off. Predictably, there was speculation that the new ball was “juiced,” but studies found no appreciable difference.
The search continues. For now, here’s a look at how the home run flies:
THE HIGH POINT
That 52-homer day came about in part thanks to the AL West-leading Houston Astros, who became the first team ever to lead off a game with back-to-back homers (George Springer, Josh Reddick) and hit a grand slam in the same inning (Alex Bregman) — all three off Yankees ace Masahiro Tanaka.
PROJECTIONS
There were 12 hitters on pace for 50-homer seasons as of May 18, including a rookie (Aaron Judge of the Yankees), recent MVPs (Mike Trout of the Angels, Bryce Harper of the Nationals) and reclamation projects (Yonder Alonso of the A’s, Eric Thames of the Brewers). Baseball hasn’t had a 50-homer man since Baltimore’s Chris Davis in 2013, with 53. The last National Leaguer was Prince Fielder, with 50 for the Brewers in 2007.
LAST YEAR
There were 5,610 homers in the 2016 season, despite a sluggish finish, not far off the record 5,692 launched in 2000 — or 1.171 homers per game. Totals dipped almost every year from 2000 to 2014, bottoming out at 4,186 — the fewest since 1995. Advanced metrics add more context, though. Using home runs per balls in play, the rate in 2016 — when hitters struck out 21.1 per cent of the time, compared to 16.5 per cent in 2000 — was the highest ever.
THIS YEAR
Through 1,114 games there had been 1,319 homers, or 1.184 per game — higher than the record average from 2000. In the heart of the so-called steroid era in 1998, Mark McGwire (70) and Sammy Sosa (66) both eclipsed Roger Maris’s long-standing record of 61 homers in a single season, set in 1961. Right now, Judge is on pace for about 65.
LAUNCH ANGLES
According to ESPN’s Sports Science, which tried to get to the bottom of Zimmerman’s breakout, the Nationals slugger has been hitting the ball an eighth of an inch lower this season, leading to a greater launch angle when the ball leaves the bat. After fielding several questions on the subject, Zimmerman mockingly pretended to agree, hoping to defuse the story. He puts this year’s success down to one thing: good health after five trips to the disabled list between 2014 and 2016 (broken thumb, strained hamstring, plantar fasciitis, rib cage strain and bruised wrist). He averaged just 90 games a season over that span.
Teammate Daniel Murphy, also off to a hot start, may have inadvertently ignited the whole launchangle thing when he told a reporter that Zimmerman had been discussing the subject in the off-season.
Hitting coaches have noted that with the rise of the four-seam fastball — which features incredible downward break in the strike zone — batters are trying harder to hit the bottom of the ball. There’s no consensus among hitters on how much stock to put into the science, though.
JUICED BALLS
At a 2016 press conference to discuss the increase in home runs, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred shot down the notion that the new ball was the reason. Afterwards, independent sources including sports website The Ringer commissioned tests of several dozen balls and found no change from the previous version. MLB did testing of its own and there’s been no hint that the results were any different.