Liberals brace for rejuvenated opposition
Conservatives, NDP will each have new leaders by this fall
OTTAWA— Senators passed the Liberal government’s budget Thursday, ending a political stand-off that could have cut short the MPs’ summer break.
The back-and-forth budget battle — fought in recent days over whether the Senate had the political authority to amend the government’s budget — ended when Senators reluctantly backed down and approved it.
Thursday’s vote defused the deadlock for now, though Senators used the opportunity to insist they have the constitutional right to amend any legislation “whatever its nature or source.”
Crisis averted, politicians are returning to their ridings. The Parliament they will return this fall to promises to be different with new political leaders and a new dynamic as the 2019 election begins to loom.
By mid-September, the Liberals will be nearing the mid-point of their four-year mandate. Trudeau and his Liberal MPs will face off against opposition parties re-energized by leadership contests. The Conservatives now have Andrew Scheer at the helm. This fall, the New Democrats will select the leader to replace Thomas Mulcair.
On Wednesday, Scheer previewed a few of the themes he’ll be taking to Canadians this summer — accusa- tions of reckless spending by the Liberals and the promise of “positive” Conservative policies.
“After just two years of Justin Trudeau, Canadians are already looking for a fresh alternative,” he told reporters on Parliament Hill.
“We’re almost at the halfway mark for this Liberal mandate, and it’s pretty obvious the sunny skies here have clouded over,” he said, a jab at Trudeau’s “sunny ways” slogan.
It’s not as bad as that for the Liberals, according to David Coletto, the CEO of Abacus Data, who says that Trudeau and the government continue to enjoy good approval ratings.
Coletto notes the Liberals have had the luxury of governing while facing a temporary leader on the Conservative side (Rona Ambrose) and a leader on his way out on the New Democrats side (Mulcair).
“So things start to get real now. That for them is probably going to be the real challenge,” he said.
On Thursday, Government House Leader Bardish Chagger touted the government’s track record this session, including the March budget, investments to combat gender-based violence, legislation to implement the Canada-European Union trade deal and just this week, legislation to overhaul national security services and oversight.
But other promises have slipped by the wayside. The promised reform of Canada’s electoral system has been abandoned. The pledge to balance the books by 2019-20 has gone by the wayside with sizeable deficits now predicted for the foreseeable future.
The Liberals boast about being back on the world stage, but a key promise of that foreign policy — a military peace mission — remains in limbo. That announcement is now expected this fall.
“Mr. Trudeau has consistently failed to deliver on his promises,” Mulcair told reporters at a sessionending news conference this week.
For Conservatives, their goal this summer should be to “introduce” Scheer to Canadians and boost his profile as the new party leader while broadening the appeal of the party, Coletto said.
Coletto has emphasized the need for Conservatives to boost support among millennials, those born between 1980 and 2000 who will make up a big share of voters in 2019.
“How do you make conservatism millennial-friendly becomes a really important question. You don’t have to win this demographic, but they have to do better,” Coletto said.
Abacus polling shows that Canadians remain open to voting for the NDP, but to win those votes, the third-place party needs to tell a “compelling story,” helped in part by the selection of a new leader, Coletto said.