Raptors’ direction in the hands of their free agents

Masai Ujiri is waiting on the decisions of Kyle Lowry and company to see what’s left of the Raps’ rotation

It is not a stretch to suggest the next two or three weeks could turn out to be the most significant period in Raptors franchise history.

Even in the hyperbolic time in which we live, having to deal with — and decide on — a free-agent class that will determine the fate and look of the team for years to come represents a watershed moment for president Masai Ujiri and his band of advisers.

And the most frustrating part of it has to be that the organization has little say in the matter and has to be more reactive than proactive.

Four free agents — point guard Kyle Lowry and forwards Serge Ibaka, Patrick Patterson and P.J. Tucker — hit the market late Friday night (or Saturday at 12:01 a.m.), with each able to chart his own course and decide where he wants to work in September.

Ujiri can pay each of the four all he wants or his budget will allow, but the Raptors are at the whim of the four.

If the players are bound and determined to go, they’re gone, without compensa- tion. That could leave a shell of team that has averaged more than 50 wins a year for the last three seasons.

Lowry is, without question, the most important, and most perplexing, of the four.

The market for him with championship-calibre teams shrunk this week when the Houston Rockets acquired Chris Paul but it did not evaporate.

It would take some salary-cap machinations but the Minnesota Timberwolves, San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz can all become suitors, and there is certain to be a surprise team or two to enter the fray.

But Lowry will turn 32 next season and a monstrous, four-year deal may not be prudent spending by any organization, including Toronto.

The Raptors would be best to see what the market forces are like, while staying competitive with any financial bid before finalizing anything. There are rumblings throughout the NBA that there is no way Toronto will offer a fifth year to the three-time all-star — a term other teams can’t match — but partially guaranteeing a fourth year may be more than other teams are willing to do and a gamble worth taking.

The money? It’s impossible to guess but a fully-guaranteed threeyear deal at more than $100 million might not be out of order, nor would a four-year pact creeping near $140 million, with the final year not fully guaranteed.

Would that be enough? Only Lowry and the market can decide that.

There have been mixed signals about his intentions coming from all NBA corners, which means no one knows what he’ll do other than Lowry himself, and he hasn’t given a public indication since the season ended.

Some teams and agents insist he is leaving Toronto, some think the market won’t pay what he might want to earn; the guesses and reading of tea leaves run the gamut.

But until he does something — and he took meetings and waited almost two days to decide the last time he was in this situation — the Raptors are likely in a holding pattern.

Ujiri’s history is that he will move quickly but he doesn’t drive the process. Two summers ago, Toronto locked up DeMarre Carroll within minutes of the negotiating window opening; and it took less than half an hour to get a commitment from DeMar DeRozan a year ago. That is not likely to happen this time around.

The other three contract negotiations are more simple, not as vital as Lowry but still important.

It’s hard to imagine Toronto paying to keep both Ibaka and Patterson since they play the same position and aren’t appreciably different in style. And while the general consensus is that Ujiri had a wink-and-nod agreement for a new contract when Ibaka was acquired in February, there is interest in other cities. The same for Patterson, who was hampered by a sore knee for most of last season but who still has the shooting prowess teams desire. Tucker is a prime defender on a relatively cheap contract and is sure to get calls.

The trouble for the Raptors is that if all four decide to leave, they still won’t be able to make a free agency splash. Devoid of “cap holds” and new deals for any of them, Toronto would still have less than $18 million to spend and that’s not enough to find one star these days, let alone replace half an eight-man rotation.

So it is a precarious balancing act that Ujiri must undertake, and which way the tightrope he’s walking tips him will set up the Raptors for years to come.