McMoney moment is coming
Leafs likely just a year away from big Matthews deal
It is, to the bulk of humanity, a staggering amount of money. Reports have it that Connor McDavid, the NHL’s reigning MVP and scoring leader, will soon enough sign an eight-year contract extension worth about $13.5 million a year.
Thirteen and a half million U.S. dollars to play hockey. That’s more than two million a month if you average it out over the six-month regular season. And certainly it’s more than any other player has earned on an average annual basis in the NHL’s salary-cap era.
Still, it seems only fair that the only NHLer who scored in triple figures last season — and McDavid had an even 100 points — will soon enough join Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Anze Kopitar as the only NHLs to earn eight figures. Toews and Kane are in the midst of identical deals that pay them an annual average of $10.5 million, a tad more than Kopitar’s $10 million. This coming season, McDavid will earn his modest base salary of $925,000 plus bonuses. After that, he’ll be the richest player in the sport. And given the enormity and rarity of McDavid’s skill, the mammoth extension amounts to the easiest decision the Oilers will make during his tenure. When it comes to NHL megastars, you sign ’em if you’ve got ’em. In piecing together a salary-cap jigsaw puzzle, they’re the easy and obvious fits.
The Oilers, given that they’re always negotiating from a position of weakness — read: a location of remoteness — should be thankful the kid seems resigned to signing away his prime without demanding more. McDavid’s deal represents about 18% of the salary cap, comparable to previous contracts for the likes of Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin.
So you can pretty much mark it down for this time next year: That’s when the Maple Leafs will likely negotiate a contract extension for Auston Matthews that will probably look a lot like McDavid’s deal.
Maybe it’ll be a little less generous; Matthews, as spectacular as he is, hasn’t yet shown himself to be in McDavid’s stratosphere. Then again, Matthews has another season to rise. And given his track record so far, it’d be foolish to suggest he doesn’t have it in him.
Either way, he’s going to be expensive. Which only underlines the opportunity staring the Leafs in the face. They’ve got Matthews and Mitch Marner on entry-level deals for two more seasons. That’s an enticing prospect for a team that took a massive competitive leap this past year. It wasn’t just their sixgame, five-overtime playoff series with the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Washington Capitals that suggested as much. From Jan. 1 until the regular season’s end, only two Eastern teams — the Capitals and Islanders — compiled more points than the Leafs.
And given that the Capitals are going to be hard-pressed to maintain their level, and that the back-toback champion Penguins will be testing the limits of human endurance with a third straight lengthy playoff run next spring, it’s easy enough to make a case that the Leafs are already one of the East’s top teams.
So it would be tempting for the Leafs, on the verge of something great, to charge into the NHL’s free-agent signing season and spend with gusto. Tempting and unwise.
The Oilers are as good an example as any of the scary perils of freeagent overreach. It was just last summer that they signed Milan Lucic to a mammoth seven-year deal worth an annual average of $6 million a season. A slow guy in a speedy league, Lucic is already a regrettable get. And it’s not Edmonton’s only recent sample. Three summers ago Edmonton signed Benoit Pouliot to a five-year deal worth $20 million that was hailed as a victory by the possession-stats crowd. Pouliot was such a hit that the Oilers recently bought out his contract, even though it’ll mean they’re stuck with a $1.33 million annual cap hit for the coming four seasons as penance for their sin.
Which is not to say the Leafs won’t find a way to improve their roster in the coming days. This is trading season, too. So maybe they make a deal to bring in a veteran right-shot defender that bolsters an obvious weak spot. Chris Tanev or Jason Demers are among the names that could make sense.
And it wouldn’t be unfathomable for Toronto to dip a cautious toe into the free-agent pool. Maybe team president Brendan Shanahan, a year after his elaborate pitch to an inexplicably freaked-out Steven Stamkos went for naught, could convince 37-year-old Joe Thornton to take an Original Six discount on a short-term deal to bring veteran wisdom to one of the league’s most exciting situations (a deal that would surely see Thornton successfully negotiate a no-shave clause from the no-beards-allowed Leafs). Or maybe Toronto looks for some depth in the July 1 bargain bin. Stan- ley Cup teams are built with income disparity as a bedrock principle. Finding minimally paid serfs to complement your stars is the art of the thing. Which is to say: Better to promote a Marlie than misspend in the July market.
So given the middling class of free agents on offer come Saturday, it’d be a shock to see Shanahan’s management team make an expensive long-term commitment. Recent history says it’s a dirty road. And the Leafs are in a comfortable spot. They have the freedom to contemplate plenty of things. They don’t need to do anything. They’re good as constructed. They’ll inevitably be better by virtue of their young core’s natural evolution.
So enjoy the blissful peace while you can. It won’t be long until they’re stuck spending the off-season doing the unsavoury deeds of so many salary-cap-era contenders — shedding higher-salaried veterans in favour of cheaper talent.