Kershaw injury alters outlook
Darvish among trade targets after ace lefty hits DL with another back injury
The loss of ace Clayton Kershaw for a month or six weeks — the estimated time frame put forth on Monday in regards to the great lefty’s latest back injury — won’t torpedo the Los Angeles Dodgers’ 2017 season. Their lead in the National League West, 10 1⁄ games over Colorado, is prob
2 ably safe, as is their eight-game cushion over the Washington Nationals for the NL’s top seed.
And you could even make a case that a well-rested Kershaw entering the post-season with 170 innings or so on his 2017 odometer — about how many he would have if he makes it back for four or five starts in September — is better for the Dodgers’ postseason hopes than a Kershaw sitting on 230-plus innings heading into the playoffs, as he did in 2013 and 2015. But the Dodgers are now deep enough into their season, and Kershaw is now deep enough into his career (10 years and 1,900 innings), that news (first reported by Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports) of another lengthy absence cannot simply be brushed off as carrying no significance whatsoever.
Of immediate concern is the timeline for Kershaw’s return. If he’s back in only four weeks, that’s late-August, plenty of time for him to ramp his stamina back up and presumably be back to his old self by the start of the post-season. But if we’re talking about the outer edges of that estimate, six weeks, suddenly it’s a week or more into September. And if Kershaw — who was leading the NL in wins (15), ERA (2.04), innings (141 1/3) and ERA+ (205) at the time of his injury — has even the slightest setback, well, the Dodgers don’t even want to consider that.
But part of a general manager’s job is to prepare for unforeseen devel- opments, even catastrophic ones, and the fact Kershaw’s injury occurred a week before the July 31 trade deadline — as opposed to, say, a week after it — is good news for Dodgers boss Andrew Friedman.
He has the leeway, if he wishes, to deal from the Dodgers’ deep farm system to acquire another front-line starter, such as Yu Darvish of the Texas Rangers. The Dodgers were believed to be considering a high-end rotation addition even before Kershaw’s injury on Sunday. Though Alex Wood has been brilliant, and Hyun-Jin Ryu is due back from a foot injury in the coming days, they are without Julio Urias (shoulder) for the rest of the season, and Brandon McCarthy (blister) for the time being, reducing their rotation depth.
A second straight summer interrupted by a back injury is a disturbing trend for a pitcher who will be turning 30 before next opening day. Anyone who loves baseball, with the possible exception of the batters who must face him, hopes to see Kershaw back on a mound by the end of next month and pitching for the Dodgers this October, and gracing the game deep into the next decade. And Monday’s news alone is not reason enough to doubt either one.
But the Dodgers’ short-term prognosis for Kershaw’s return, and Kershaw’s own long-term continued health, both rely on best-case scenarios going forward. And neither, at this point, can be considered sure things.