It’s time for a tougher tone on Trump from Trudeau
One of the signal accomplishments of Justin Trudeau’s government has been its delicate dance with the elephant south of the border.
It has worked well with different levels of government, business, labour leaders and influencers in the U.S., while ignoring the bluster from the top.
By keeping Donald Trump at bay, the Liberals have also benefited, looking more progressive in image rather than deed because of the inevitable comparisons with Washington. So far, so good. Until this week. Bullies are going to bully. And the sledgehammer the Trump administration took to Bombardier was so far over the top that it demands a change of tone on bilateral relations from Trudeau and his key ministers.
The Liberals have shown patience, civility and a cool demeanour as softwood lumber came under attack from Washington, our dairy industry was threatened, as the president threatened to rip up NAFTA, decided to renegotiate after all and then bombastically threatened to kill the deal again while Canada, Mexico and the U.S. were at the table.
But a 220-per-cent duty on Bombardier jets is not mere rhetoric that can be ignored.
Most Canadians will not be seized by a fight between two overly-coddled aerospace companies. Neither Boeing nor Bombardier is easy to cuddle up to.
Both have been dining off government subsidies for years, a hallmark of the aerospace industry. Bombardier has received just short of $1.7 billion from Quebec and the federal government since Trudeau was elected in 2015. It received about $2 billion in the decade before the Liberals came to power and has been receiving government largesse since 1966. Shortly after receiving $372.5 million from Ottawa, it hiked the pay of top executives by 50 per cent before backing down after a storm of criticism.
Boeing has received so much in government subsidies over the past two decades — estimated at $14 billion — that the Export-Import Bank of the United States is derisively known as the Bank of Boeing.
Even before he was inaugurated, Trump threatened to cancel Boeing’s contract to replace Air Force One because it was too expensive. So, Boeing complied, drastically cutting the price tag. It moved an assembly plant to South Carolina to avoid the inconvenience of pesky unions.
But this is beyond the aerospace industry.
By seeking almost three times what Boeing was seeking in duties over Bombardier’s sale of CSeries jets to Delta, there is no doubt this is a political decision in the U.S.
And there can be no doubt from the responses by Trudeau and Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard that they see it as political as well.
Observers in the U.S. are left wondering about Trump’s gambit.
Is he just trying to muscle allies out of the U.S. as part of his America First strategy? Is he trying to goad Canada into a trade war this country would be wise to avoid?
By launching this during NAFTA talks, is he signalling that he really doesn’t want a trilateral deal?
If this is a typical Trumpian theatrical flourish, it could prove to be one expensive piece of theatre.
“This latest announcement reflects the destabilizing nature of the president,” Paul Frazer, a Washington-based consultant and former Canadian diplomat, told me.
“People voted him as a disrupter, but he is more than that. That can be more dangerous, and he is having an impact on Canada-U. S. relations.”
In the short term, the federal and Quebec governments should take their case to the states, where more than 22,000 American jobs depend on building components for the Bombardier CSeries.
So far, Trudeau has saved his toughest talk for Boeing, saying his government will not do business with a company “aiming to put our aerospace workers out of business.”
Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland, in a lovely understatement, called the U.S. administration “unconventional.”
But Freeland is in a tough spot. She is trying to negotiate a trade deal with the U.S.
Any Canadian response to this move will have to be surgical in nature, but the Liberals are going to have to start showing some muscle.
It’s time for Trudeau and his government to take a sharper tone. Canadians want their prime ministers to be close, but not too close to American presidents. It’s no longer clear most Canadians even want their government to be close to Trump.
Yes, this illustrates the need to maintain a disputes settlement mechanism in NAFTA. But this Trump bullying on trade also means we might have to start thinking about life without NAFTA. Tim Harper writes on national affairs. tjharper77@gmail.com, Twitter: @nutgraf1